Market Snapshot
| Dow | 45952.03 | -301.07 | (-0.65%) | | Nasdaq | 22562.56 | -107.54 | (-0.47%) | | SP 500 | 6629.06 | -41.99 | (-0.63%) | | 10-yr Note |
|
|
|
| | NYSE | Adv 741 | Dec 2015 | Vol 1.23 bln | | Nasdaq | Adv 1372 | Dec 3345 | Vol 11.45 bln |
Industry Watch
| Strong: -- |
| | Weak: Financials, Industrials, Energy, Consumer Staples, Utilities, Consumer Discretionary, Materials, Communication Services, Real Estate, Health Care, Information Technology |
Moving the Market
Modest early gains fade to broad-based retreat
Regional banking names under pressure, with Zions Bancorp (Zion) charging off $50 mln in bad loans; other names face continued fall-out from First Brands bankruptcy
Geopolitical uncertainty
Early strength in semiconductor and AI names after Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing's (TSM) Q3 earnings, which reported strong AI demand
|
Credit quality concerns, geopolitical uncertainty prompt volatile session
16-Oct-25 16:35 ET
Dow -301.07 at 45952.03, Nasdaq -107.54 at 22562.56, S&P -41.99 at 6629.06
[BRIEFING.COM] A brief and modest early rally around AI enthusiasm quickly faded into a broad market retreat just before midday, with the S&P 500 (-0.6%), Nasdaq Composite (-0.5%), and DJIA (-0.7%) trading progressively lower throughout the session. The small-cap Russell 2000 (-2.1%) and S&P Mid Cap 400 (-1.2%) lagged as the market displayed a risk-off disposition, resulting in some safe-haven demand in U.S. Treasuries.
For much of the morning, only the financials sector (-2.8%) traded in negative territory, with the initial weakness concentrated in insurer names after Marsh McLennan (MMC 186.48, -17.37, -8.52%) and Travelers (TRV 261.57, -7.88, -2.92%) traded lower despite beating earnings expectations.
The sector would weigh heavier on the market after Zions Bancorp (ZION 46.93, -7.10, -13.14%) and Western Alliance Bancorp (WAL 70.32, -8.52, -10.81%) disclosed that they were victims of fraud involving loans tied to funds that invest in distressed commercial real estate, according to Bloomberg. Zions Bancorp disclosed a $50 million charge-off for one of the loans, which will be reflected on the company's Q3 earnings statement.
The KBW Regional Bank ETF slid 6.3% in response.
The scandal adds to a growing list of recent missteps that have prompted credit quality concerns across the industry, including Jefferies' (JEF 48.80, -5.80, -10.62%) exposure to the recently bankrupt First Brands and JPMorgan Chase (JPM 298.54, -7.15, -2.34%) and Fifth Third's (FITB 40.36, -2.56, -5.96%) exposure to the bankrupt Tricolor Auto.
Eroded confidence in the broader market ultimately saw ten S&P 500 sectors close with losses.
Only the information technology sector (+0.1%) closed with a slight gain, led by strength in chipmakers after Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM 300.00, -4.71, -1.55%) reported strong AI demand in its Q3 earnings report. The PHLX Semiconductor Index (+0.5%) closed with a modest gain after retreating beneath its flatline.
Despite the slight advance, the sector also held one of the worst-performing names in the S&P 500 amid a day ripe with laggards. F5 Networks (FFIV 295.35, -35.40, -10.70%) traded sharply lower after Bloomberg reported that the company's flagship BIG-IP product was breached by state-backed Chinese hackers.
Other notable laggards today included United Airlines (UAL 98.19, -5.86, -5.63%), which traded lower despite an earnings beat. CEO Scott Kirby said the federal government shutdown could hurt bookings if it continues, according to CNBC.
Kenvue (KVUE 14.11, -2.15, -13.22%) crashed to all-time lows on reports that the company is facing new litigation in the United Kingdom related to talc-based products, which the suit alleges are related to ovarian cancer claims.
The energy sector (-1.1%) also lagged as crude oil futures settled today's session $1.25 lower (-2.1%) at $57.03 per barrel. Reuters reported that the U.S and India had productive talks and Indian refiners are already lowering Russian imports by 50%.
President Trump and Russian President Putin spoke on the phone today, with President Trump describing the conversation as "very productive" and announcing that he will meet with the Russian president in Hungary to discuss the war in Ukraine soon.
There were relatively few developments regarding the recent trade tensions with China throughout the session, though President Trump described the situation as a trade war yesterday evening.
Mounting geopolitical uncertainty, credit quality concerns across the banking industry, and a handful of negative corporate headlines culminated in a volatile environment for equities today that saw the CBOE Volatility Index surge over 20%.
While stocks largely retreated throughout the session, U.S. Treasuries saw some safe-haven interest, with relative strength up front sending the 2-year yield to its lowest level since August 2022. The 2-year note yield settled down seven basis points to 3.43%, and the 10-year note yield settled down seven basis points to 3.98%.
- Nasdaq Composite: +16.8% YTD
- S&P 500: + 12.7% YTD
- Russell 2000: +10.6% YTD
- DJIA: +8.0% YTD
- S&P Mid Cap 400: +3.1% YTD
Reviewing today's data:
- The Philadelphia Fed survey fell to -12.8 in October (Briefing.com consensus 9.1) from 23.2 in September.
- The NAHB Housing Market Index rose to 37 in October (Briefing.com consensus 33) from 32 in September.
- The Treasury Budget for September showed a surplus of $198.0 billion compared to a surplus of $80.3 billion in the same period a year ago. That is the largest monthly surplus since April 2025. The September surplus resulted from receipts ($544.0 billion) exceeding outlays ($346.0 billion). The Treasury Budget data are not seasonally adjusted, so the September surplus cannot be compared to the August deficit of $344.8 bln.
- The key takeaway from the report is that the FY25 deficit was less than the FY24 deficit. That is the good news. The bad news is that the FY25 deficit was still $1.775 trillion, even with the collection of $195 billion in customs duties (for tariffs).
Charting session lows near the close
16-Oct-25 15:35 ET
Dow -438.99 at 45814.11, Nasdaq -208.37 at 22461.73, S&P -64.90 at 6606.15
[BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 (-1.0%), Nasdaq Composite (-1.0%), and DJIA (-0.9%) continue to chart session lows just before the close.
Kenvue (KVUE 14.30, -1.96, -12.05%) has crashed to all-time lows on reports that the company is facing new litigation in the United Kingdom related to talc-based products, which the suit alleges are related to ovarian cancer claims.
United Airlines (UAL 96.58, -7.46, -7.17%) saw some modest selling pressure after beating earnings expectations this morning but slipped to new lows after CEO Scott Kirby said the federal government shutdown could hurt bookings if it continues, according to CNBC.
Major averages near session lows, financials sector lags
16-Oct-25 15:05 ET
Dow -319.32 at 45933.78, Nasdaq -151.60 at 22518.50, S&P -50.52 at 6620.53
[BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 (-0.8%), Nasdaq Composite (-0.7%), and DJIA (-0.6%) sit near their session lows as the market enters the final hour of the session.
Losses in the financial sector (-2.6%) continue to widen, with banking names now under pressure after Zions Bancorp (ZION 47.51, -6.52, -12.07%) announced last night it will charge off $50 million in bad loans.
Jefferies (JEF 49.49, -5.11, -9.36%) also continues to tumble, with CNBC reporting that hedge funds run by the company are owed $715 million from companies connected to the recently bankrupt First Brands.
The negative sentiment in the sector has rippled across other major banking names, even those that recently reported strong Q3 earnings this week, including Bank of America (BAC 50.74, -1.54, -2.96%), JPMorgan Chase (JPM 299.18, -6.51, -2.13%), and Goldman Sachs (GS 759.84, -8.09, -1.05%).
S&P 500 slips as Treasury reports $198 bln September surplus, FY25 deficit shrinks to $1.78 trln
16-Oct-25 14:30 ET
Dow -355.62 at 45897.48, Nasdaq -191.36 at 22478.74, S&P -60.84 at 6610.21
[BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 (-0.91%) remains the top lagging major average on Thursday afternoon; briefly, the majors have all relatively held their lower lines following the release of the Treasury's September budget from the bottom of the hour.
The Treasury Budget for September showed a surplus of $198 billion compared to a surplus of $80.3 billion in the same period a year ago.
The September surplus resulted from receipts ($543.7 billion) exceeding outlays ($345.7 billion). The Treasury Budget data are not seasonally adjusted so the September surplus cannot be compared to the August deficit of $344.8 bln.
The key takeaway from the report is that the FY25 deficit was less than the FY24 deficit. That is the good news. The bad news is that the FY25 deficit was still $1.775 trillion, even with the collection of $195 billion in customs duties (for tariffs).
Gold jumps $103 to $4,304 on rate-cut bets, shutdown, and geopolitical jitters
16-Oct-25 14:00 ET
Dow -177.83 at 46075.27, Nasdaq -77.54 at 22592.56, S&P -31.80 at 6639.25
[BRIEFING.COM] With about two hours to go on Thursday the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (-0.34%) is down about 77 points, good enough for the "best" showing with more aggressive losses being had elsewhere; we're also cognizant of reports that the Treasury plans to release the Monthly Budget Statement at the top of the hour, eight days late owing to the federal government shutdown.
Gold futures settled $103.00 higher (+2.4%) at $4,304.60/oz, amid a convergence of safe-haven demand, rate-cut expectations, and geopolitical jitters. Markets are pricing in more aggressive easing from the U.S. Federal Reserve, which lowers the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold. At the same time, renewed U.S./China trade tensions, Chinese rare-earth export controls, and an ongoing U.S. federal government shutdown have amplified stress in risk markets, pushing investors toward gold. Meanwhile, central banks and institutional buyers continue to accumulate bullion, and the weakening U.S. dollar is further boosting gold's appeal.
Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index is down about -0.4% to $98.32.
Hewlett Packard Enterprise dives on soft FY26 guidance and Juniper-Aruba integration update (HPE)
Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE) disappointed investors at its Securities Analyst Meeting, as FY26 guidance came in softer than consensus and shares sold off sharply. Management framed the near-term weakness as an investment-and-integration phase -- notably the Juniper+Aruba integration -- with the promise of stronger margins and revenue synergies after 2026.
- HPE expects FY26 EPS of $2.20-$2.40 and revenue growth of 5–10%, both below analyst expectations.
- The company said the Juniper+Aruba integration will create near-term revenue pressure due to channel and customer transitions and adjustments to the go-to-market strategy.
- HPE expects operating margins to improve to 25-28% after 2026, driven by cost synergies, scale, and a favorable mix from AI-focused datacenter switching.
- The networking business is projected to grow 5-7% from FY26-FY28, reflecting near-term challenges.
- For FY25-FY28, HPE targets a 5-7% revenue CAGR, 11-17% non-GAAP operating profit growth, and EPS of at least $3.00 by FY28.
- The Catalyst initiative aims to enhance growth and drive cost savings through portfolio simplification, SG&A efficiency, supply-chain improvements, and R&D prioritization, delivering at least $350 mln in gross savings by FY28.
- HPE still expects at least $600 mln in Juniper-related cost synergies.
- The company also announced a 10% increase to its FY26 dividend and authorized $3 bln in additional share repurchase capacity.
Briefing.com Analyst Insight:
HPE’s strategy is credible: short-term revenue softness is deliberate to prioritize integration, with longer-term margin and revenue upside from combined Aruba+Juniper assets and AI-focused data-center offerings. Catalyst cost actions and Juniper synergies support margin expansion, but execution risk remains. The market is right to react to softer guidance, as integration execution, channel transitions, and weak networking growth could pressure results over multiple quarters. Investors will likely monitor product roadmap consolidation, cross-sell progress, and early synergy realization before gaining more confidence in the turnaround.
J.B. Hunt Transport Jumps as Cost Savings Drive Big Q3 Beat Amid Slumping Freight Market (JBHT)
J.B. Hunt Transport (JBHT) is sharply higher today after posting Q3 results last night that featured its largest EPS beat in nearly four years. Revenue was essentially flat, down 0.5% yr/yr to $3.05 bln, but still exceeded expectations as analysts had expected a more pronounced decline amid persistent weakness across the freight and intermodal markets.
- Freight demand trended below normal seasonality, while spot rates stayed weak; capacity exits are accelerating, though soft demand has muted the near-term impact.
- Against that backdrop, productivity and expense control more than offset higher inflation, insurance, wages, and equipment costs.
- These efforts were supported by JBHT's "lowering our cost-to-serve" initiative, which removed over $20 mln in expenses during the quarter toward its $100 mln goal, lifting operating income 8% yr/yr and EPS 18% yr/yr.
- Management expects the majority of savings to be realized by 2026, with ongoing benefits from service efficiencies, network balancing, and improved asset utilization.
- Intermodal revenue fell 2% yr/yr but operating income rose 12% on improved network balance and fewer empty moves, while Dedicated revenue grew 2% with operating income up 9% on higher productivity and lower equipment-related costs.
Briefing.com Analyst Insight
The results this quarter for JBHT were impressive, and that was despite the downtrodden freight market. Its cost initiatives clearly helped drive the upside, with more savings expected to come through, particularly in 2026. Management noted that customers remain cautious and skeptical of any near-term change in freight conditions, suggesting the market hasn't found a bottom yet. Still, JBHT appears poised to capture early gains once demand begins to turn.
United Airlines hits some turbulence as unit revenue falls, masking underlying demand strength (UAL)
United Airlines (UAL) delivered mixed 3Q25 results, beating EPS expectations but missing on revenue, a contrast to peer Delta Airlines’ (DAL) strong beat-and-raise report last week. The revenue shortfall is weighing on shares, as investors focus on the continued decline in unit revenue metrics as higher capacity offset fare strength.
- TRASM fell 4.3% yr/yr, worse than last quarter’s 4.0% drop, pressured by a 7.2% capacity increase that outpaced demand. In comparison, DAL’s TRASM rose 2%, underscoring UAL’s relative pricing pressure.
- Premium cabin revenue grew 6% yr/yr, loyalty revenue jumped 9%, and basic economy rose 4%, showcasing strong revenue diversification despite softer yields.
- UAL continues to invest over $1 bln in upgrades, including Starlink Wi-Fi, seatback screens, and enhanced onboard food, aiming to strengthen customer loyalty and premium demand.
- Q4 EPS guidance of $3.00-$3.50 came in above expectations, supported by robust premium and business travel and expected unit revenue improvement.
Briefing.com Analyst Insight:
UAL’s Q3 highlights the challenge of balancing growth and pricing power. Strong execution drove an EPS beat, but expanding capacity is pressuring TRASM and masking underlying demand strength. While its premium and loyalty segments continue to shine, DAL’s superior yield management stands out. UAL’s upbeat Q4 outlook suggests stabilization ahead, but until unit revenue improves, its stock may lag peers. Longer term, UAL’s fleet and service investments should enhance brand equity and help capture more premium share. However, the near-term risk remains that its rapid supply growth could limit pricing recovery if macro conditions soften.
Abbott Labs delivers steady Q3 results and guidance, but report offers little new excitement (ABT)
Abbott Laboratories’ (ABT) 3Q25 results were generally in line with expectations, consistent with its pattern of steady performance. Revenue rose 6.9% yr/yr to $11.37 bln, or 7.5% excluding COVID-19 testing-related sales, while EPS landed near consensus estimates. FY25 EPS guidance was maintained at $5.12–$5.18, with organic sales growth reaffirmed at +7.5–8.0%. Results and guidance come across as somewhat underwhelming, reflected in today’s stock weakness.
- Medical Devices led growth, up 12.5% organically to $5.4 bln, driven by double-digit gains in Diabetes Care, Electrophysiology, Rhythm Management, Heart Failure, and Structural Heart. Continuous Glucose Monitor (CGM) sales reached $2.0 bln, up 20.5%, supported by FreeStyle Libre adoption and new product launches.
- Established Pharmaceuticals grew 7.1% organically, with emerging markets up 11.1%, led by Creon, Duphaston, and Brufen across Asia, Latin America, and the Middle East.
- Diagnostics declined 7.8% organically as COVID-19 testing dropped 74% to $69 mln. Excluding COVID products, revenue edged up 0.4%, weighed down by soft demand in China and volume-based procurement programs.
Briefing.com Analyst Insight:
ABT’s Q3 results reflect its typical steady execution but lacked significant upside. Medical Devices remains the primary growth engine, fueled by CGM and cardiac device adoption. Established Pharmaceuticals provides reliable contributions from emerging markets, while Diagnostics normalizes post-pandemic. The reaffirmed full-year outlook signals confidence but offers little new excitement. Investors may await stronger catalysts, such as faster Libre adoption or new device approvals, to drive stock momentum. Overall, while ABT remains a solid, predictable performer, near-term upside appears limited without incremental innovation or market expansion.
ASML Higher on Q3 Results as Improved Visibility and AI-Driven Demand Signal Steadier Outlook (ASML)
ASML (ASML) is moving higher after reporting its Q3 results this morning. The semiconductor equipment giant, a focal point of the ongoing AI-driven capex boom, delivered a more modest EPS beat than in previous quarters, while revenue edged up just 0.7% yr/yr to €7.52 bln, missing expectations. Encouragingly, the midpoint of ASML's Q4 revenue outlook of €9.2-9.8 bln sits well above consensus, and management reaffirmed its FY25 revenue growth target of roughly 15% to about €32.5 bln.
- Management noted improved visibility this quarter from Q2, citing ongoing AI infrastructure investments and broader customer momentum across both logic and advanced DRAM, along with continued adoption of more EUV layers that boost lithography intensity.
- On the other hand, it expects China customer demand and sales to significantly decline in 2026 compared to 2024 and 2025.
- Net system sales were driven by logic (65%) and memory (35%), with logic orders supported by leading-edge node transitions and memory strength tied to advanced DRAM and HBM demand.
- Bookings totaled €5.4 bln, split 53% logic and 47% memory, including €3.6 bln in EUV systems as customers continue migrating from multi-patterning to single EUV exposure.
- Gross margin of 51.6% was strong and helped drive the EPS beat despite the revenue miss; ASML expects margins of 51-53% in Q4 and around 52% for FY25.
- Shipped its first 3D packaging lithography tool (XT:260) and highlighted progress with its high-NA EUV platform.
Briefing.com Analyst Insight
This was a good quarter for ASML and a nice bounce back from Q2 after signaling customer hesitation and uncertainty. The tone was notably more upbeat, with management pointing to steady progress in AI-related logic and DRAM buildouts and an ongoing shift toward higher EUV layer adoption. The risk remains geopolitical, with China sales expected to be significantly lower in 2026, though the strong Q4 guide and reaffirmed FY25 outlook suggest a solid finish to the year. The expectation that FY26 will not fall below FY25 also points to a more stable demand environment heading into the next cycle.
|
