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Technology Stocks : Research In Motion TSE RIM Nasdaq RIMM

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To: John Carragher who wrote (953)	8/27/2008 5:17:13 PM
From: X-Ray Man	Read Replies (1) of 989

Hmmm. You don't think 40M/year is a great number for a new product, but RIM has a subscriber base (a measure of their active users) of less than 20M for an established and dominant market share. OK. I disagree. But of course, if only 4M are with corporate clients, Apple has had little market penetration yet. That could be bad: they aren't competitive because they can't minimize the risk along the lines you describe. Or it could be good: they have significant opportunity to grow, both for new share or to replace RIM share. And that to me is the difference. RIM can grow, but it won't replace Apple share. But if Apple grows, part of that could be replacing RIM share. And I don't think that is reflected in RIMs price. I think RIMs price reflects your thinking: that they still will dominate that corporate market share. On that basis, I play RIMM short, and AAPL long. I think they should be at about the same P/E multiple, and I think AAPL is currently close to fairly priced, with moderate upside. Again, time will tell.

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