America On-Line: will it survive ...? Message Board

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Technology Stocks : America On-Line: will it survive ...?

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To: Sam who wrote (9540)	4/16/1998 5:21:00 PM
From: Mike C	of 13594

Excellent post Sam - just the numbers I was looking for. This additional information throws a little water on my analysis of member increases or lack thereof. As you may suspect my model of a decrease in stock price is based upon market realization that membership numbers can not increase forever and may even begin to decrease as users see other avenues to access the web. The table you provided indicates substantial variation in the number of days to reach the next million members.I may be reading a bounce as a trend. For those who are interested: Last 3 reporting periods - Days to 1 million increase: 75, 64, 86. Time to 1st million - 736 days Average time between million members - 83 days Increase is fairly linear save for early 1997 when connection problems occured and peaks near Christmas. Average days to 1 million increase along the best straight line through the data - 122 days. By the way, there is reasonable correlation between rate of stock increase and rate of member increase. If it takes more than 90 days to reach the next million she could be in trouble, less than 60 days stock could continue trend IMO. Mike C

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