WTI Encana, XOP, energy stocks
Links to help judge the falling knife
A new week starting, for me, eyes on Nymex open this evening, wti, futures and asia markets.. Nasty. Thought I might share some links I found most useful, for those interested. Happy trading.
Iraq, Methinks Trump very displeased
At least one Iraqi official said there was a direct hit of one of the missiles on the US embassy, which some reports said ignited a fire in the dining hall; however, US sources did not immediately issue a confirmation or denial.
zerohedge.com
Three of the five rockets fired on Sunday "directly hit the US embassy" in Baghdad, the AFP news agency quoting a security source said, including one that slammed into a cafe at dinner time. aljazeera.com
A good timeline of corona virus I have came across. aljazeera.com
Twitter feed corona viris
twitter.com
Libya
“Shutdown of all affected oil fields will result in a loss of crude oil production of 1.2 million b/d Libya’s National Oil Corporation (NOC) said on Monday, confirming that nearly all of the OPEC member’s production will be lost due to the blockade.
According to ING’s estimates, the current outages around the world sum up to around 1.4 million bpd, “which would be more than enough to shift the global market into deficit over 1H20,”
oilprice.com
Re ECA/OVV at key support as is XOP, expect both to fail.
Key to this selloff is likely correct perception that Wuhan Flu will have large impact upon peoples behavour out of all proportion to risk. Or to say another way, enough people hole up to significantly impact the economy. I cannot argue against this worry as it is human nature to react this way. Whether individual actions/behavour is unwarranted or not is beside the point, reality as with charts must not be clouded by investor emotions. Personally I am getting out of the way for this one. Hunkering down so to speak in precious metals and cash. Have not seen a bottom on the charts for oil/energy, do not like falling knives. Live by the mantra that do not need to catch the bottom nor the top but instead catch that juicy part in between.
I still have some dollars in energy and thinking best way to deal with dead money would be to shift it to silver and gold miners. Take the loss and move on to greener pastures. Just a question of timing. Alot of silver demand is industrial rather than monetary so prefer golds here. At same time this economic event is deflationary so gold more a way to maintain capital relative to stocks rather than a way to 'earn' money. Cash would become more valuable and real estate less in such a deflationary scenario.
My two cents |
