Progenitor (PGEN) Message Board

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Biotech / Medical : Progenitor (PGEN)

PGEN 4.140

+2.2%

Oct 31 9:30 AM EST

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To: sean who wrote (96)	12/17/1998 11:37:00 PM
From: BRAVEHEART	Read Replies (2) of 106

Hi sean, Good question. The stock took a nose dive the other day. Mostly on panic by a relatively small % of shareholders. Actually 10% of the float and 2% of the total outstanding shares. Insiders hold the bulk of shares. The bad news. The company needs cash. The options at this point include. 1. Sell the company. 2. Merge the company. 3. Sell the assits. I have heard that there is sincere interest in several of the companies platform programs. In particular it's Asthma program and it's Stem cell research capabilities. Additionally the company has a decent anti/angiogenesis research program. There is also a party interested in owning a large portion of the company. The recent press release stated that the company would accomplish one of the three options. The first response was to sell based on the news release and the panic. I know I sold. Then I said to myself. Wait a minute. Here is a stock now trading at .25 cents. It's not like the FDA said no. It's not like the 30 million acquisition of Mercantor ( which was valued in the last 18 months ) burned to the ground. It's not like the company discontinued it's own programs. In fact it is not like no one is interested. There apparently are interested suitors. So I figured heck. At this point what is probably the worse case scenario. Well since insiders own 80% of the company I seriously doubt they are looking to screw the shareholders. The company has enough cash to pay off it's existing debit. Hence it's value is in it's assits. So what are they? What are they worth? Well let's see. The company IPO'ed at $5 or $55 million. The Mercantor acquisition was for $30 million. The company has recieved payments for it's collaborations. The company has about $4 to $5 million in cash. The company had certain intrinsic value. So let's say there is no way anyone is gonna give shareholders $55 million. That is obvious. So at .25 the company could be had for $2,750,000. Well that doesn't make much sense either. It must be somewhere in between. But where? My best guesstimate is between $7.5 million and $12.5 million. Sure I'd like to see $20 million. Heck a large company could easily absorb $20 million. Especially if they can somehow absorb a portion of PGEN's historic debit which someone posted is in excess of $50 million. I am not familiar with this mechanism but it does lead to some interesting speculations. So yes this is a highly speculative investment at this point but I somehow like the potential here. THE TRUTH IS MAY IT PLAY OUT FAVIORABLY LONE WOLF

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