There is a known, though fluctuating, casualty rate for SARS, and so far it is much much higher than for influenza. However, the extrapolations that are being made from that rate are not necessarily valid. For example, to conclude that 36 million people might die in North America alone because up to 10 percent of the population would die if all were exposed to SARS is not a valid conclusion.
Viruses are opportunistic. Even during influenza epidemics, the majority of the population does not get the disease. Many who do not get the disease are exposed to the virus, but their immune system somehow is able to deal with it effectively. Also important is the fact that early sufferers include disproportionate numbers who are immuno-compromised in some way, such as children, the elderly, and those with other respiratory issues. Perhaps 10 percent of those individuals might die if they get SARS, but many others who are exposed might get few or no symptoms.
Perhaps the Chinese are more susceptible genetically or environmentally. Perhaps the virus itself can be more effectively contained through traveler restrictions. Perhaps even if it does spread, earlier treatment of the symptoms can dramatically reduce the death rate. If we need more respirators we can make more, and quickly.
This could be the second coming of the plague, but this isn't the 14th Century. |
