<related topic> Korean economy -- here's a survey and a forecast (two articles)..............
The forecast:
koreaherald.co.kr
11-15-97 : Electronics, Information Industry to Make Up 20 Percent of Economy
by 2005
The electronics and information industry will soon account for about 20 percent of the Korean
economy, according to a survey. The Electronics Industry Association of Korea, in a report
on the results of a survey of 1,200 experts concerning mid- and long-term outlook, said the
weight of electronics and information, now representing 16 percent of the national economy,
will reach 18 percent in 2000 and climb to 20 percent by 2005.
In the global economic and information industry, Korea will account for 9 percent by 2005,
emerging as one of the world's three major players after the United States and Japan,
according to the survey report. Over the long-term, growth in the audio and video sector will
limp along, averaging 1 percent a year, but the semiconductor and computer sector will post
an average growth rate of 9 percent. As a result, the electronic industry will be centered on
such technology-intensive areas as semiconductors and computer and telecommunications.
Both exports and the domestic market for the electronics and information industry will post
steady growth averaging 8.5 percent a year until 2000 to $89 billion or more in 2000 from
$57.1 billion now: by 2005, it will grow at a rate of 8 percent, reaching $130 billion. The
worldwide market will be led by such products as CATV, parallel processor computers,
hand-held phones, local area network, and liquid panels by 2000. But thereafter, the market
will be led by HDTV, digital VCR, home TV phones and large-capacity recording media until
2005, according to the survey report.
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The Survey:
koreaherald.co.kr
11-15-97 : View from Abroad: How Fares Korea's Economy?
By Koo Hee-jin Staff reporter
Unlike the continuous negative outlooks published by several foreign newspapers and wire
services, long-term projections on the Korean economy given by other foreign media and
business partners remain largely optimistic, according to a survey. The Korea
Trade-Investment Promotion Agency (KOTRA) conducted a survey of newspapers, financial
and business analysts and business firms in 10 cities around the world asking their views on
the Korean economy. Amid reports of negative outlooks by the foreign media, which has
played a role in bringing the world's eye on the Korean financial crisis, the survey showed that
there were still those who differed from the gloomy forecasts.
Here is a compilation of some of their views. Charles Armstrong, professor at Columbia
University, U.S.: The Korean economy is currently having its share of difficulties. I understand
it has mainly attributed to problems in the financial market. I think the reports by the American
media have been rather exaggerated.
I believe the Korean Economy to be more stable than other southeast Asian countries such as
Thailand, and thus is not expected to follow in the footsteps of the southeast Asian economic
crisis. Time will solve Korea's problems. Recovery will take time but I am certain Korea will
eventually recover from its setback. Steven Radlitt, researcher at the World Development
Institute at Harvard University: The Korean economy has suffered a setback from its currency
crisis, but is expected to stabilize in the long-run and continue its rapid growth.
The German Machinery Industry Association (VDMA): The current situation in Korea is
unavoidable amid a restructuring in the business sector. The situation has worsened, with the
crisis arriving in time for the presidential elections. Korea is influenced by the southeast Asian
currency crisis but has the advantage of having a more sound business foundation than
Singapore or Hong Kong. However, the problem remains that the quality of Korean products
remain low compared to their high costs.
Ludiger Frank, researcher at the Korean Studies Association at Berlin University: Considering
the strength of the Korean economy, its problems with overseas loans are expected to get
better within the next 10 months. A society with a centralized power structure may have the
advantage of quick decisions and thus bring a solution to the crisis. The Germany's East Asia
Association (OVA): The current problems are believed to be the growing pains felt in a
restructuring process. Nevertheless the situation is certainly alarming. Korea's marketing
strategy based on its price competitiveness is slowing wearing thin, and thus demand a more
concrete solution. The depreciation of its currency is only an added burden to its overseas
loans, and will cause more problems in getting foreign capital from abroad.
''Financial Business,'' Japanese monthly, December issue: Korea's current financial crisis is
attributed to the back-to-back insolvencies of its large conglomerates and the decline in the
government's authority in dealing with a crisis, faced with the presidential election. The
situation is expected to continue for some time.
However, with its exports on the rise, and its trade deficit declining, the problem is not
expected to reach the alarming levels felt by Thailand earlier this year. |
