CDTS SCON ISCO & GIGA are sizzling at the moment.
Here's an informative post from the yahoo board:
SCON, CDTS, ISCO evaluation matrix
by: mehmet_gokcedag 2/28/00 10:51 am
Msg: 5888 of 5921
(This is a repost for newcomers to read,
it is over a week old by now, research for
more readings by yourself.)
SCON, CDTS, ISCO evaluation matrix
I posted many messages on SCON board. Please
go and read them. I am hoping that you would
benefit from my insights and personal research.
FYI I am long on both SCON and CDTS.
Briefly, we are looking at a market opportunity
of over 10-20 Billion dollars with a stronghold
of three companies: SCON, CDTS and ISCO whose
total market cap is about half a Billion. There
is a high barrier to entry in this business since
preparation of high temperature superconductors
requires a know-how that is very difficult to
acquire. Bottomline: These stocks are going to
explode! At this point in time, I am not aware
of any non-US companies producing the same kind
of equipment and there cannot be many because
this technology needs years of research and
development and qualified researchers.
NTT Docomo and Vodafone-Mannesmann are likely
to order huge amounts of these superconducting
wireless base stations in their transition to
3G systems, especially into W-CDMA. Question is
which company is going to get the big orders?
I wish I knew.
Now back to SCON, CDTS and ISCO. There are
differences between these three companies
which may change the landspace, i.e. not
all three are on equal footing. Let me
explain it on a simple matrix in terms of
their technology:
SCON:
Very small, efficient cooler +
Thin film superconductor +
CDTS:
Old fashioned, inefficient cooler -
Thin film superconductor +
ISCO:
Old fashioned, inefficient cooler -
Thick film superconductor ???
SCON has the best of both worlds with an in-
house special design compact cooler and thin
film superconductors. Their systems are small
and power efficient. In addition cryogenic
SCON coolers were shown to increase
microprocessor performance and may enjoy
such an extra demand. SCON has also 60
patents on these technologies.
CDTS range in the middle with essentially the
'same' thin film technology (appearently CDTS
had a joint development project with SCON in
the past) but they have inferior coolers which
they buy from an outside supplier. CDTS's
simulation software maybe a good selling
point (check their site).
The thick film superconductor technology of
ISCO is the most questionable aspect of their
products. It is very hard to judge but they
'may' have an inferior product. More research
on this is necessary. I guess comparisons
should be application specific.
The above matrix is very simplistic and a
detailed specs comparison of the products
maybe necessary. Unfortunately I couldn't
find much information on the exact product
specs for comparison purposes.
For a FAQ please check
conductus.com
For additional readings please visit the
web sites of the three companies
suptech.com
conductus.com
ilsc.com
Also read the following articles
moneycentral.msn.com
wirelessdesignonline.com{69E3E729-D41
1-11D3-8C18-009027DE0829}&Bucket=HomeFeaturedArticles
strategisgroup.com
Finally visit NTT Docomo's web site to
see what the future of wireless is and
read for yourself that they are clearly
interested in high-temperature
superconductor and ultra-low noise
technologies. NTT Docomo is also
conducting its own research in this
field because they believe in future
importance of this field.
nttdocomo.com
I hope I was helpful. I personally
think that these three companies
should capture at least 50% of a
market of $10-20 Billion and their
total market cap should reach a few
Billion in the near future. This
may also give the financial leverage
to boost their production. In his
article Jon Markman makes more
conservative estimates, but I am
more bullish in the absence of
non-US competitor information
except NTT Docomo.
Mehmet Gokcedag |
