I've sort of been following this stock since October of last year, when I saw an article mentioning them in the WSJ (Oct. 6, 1995). They are currently developing drugs for osteoporosis, asthma, and allergies using a technology called signal-transduction blocking. Hoechst AG, a big German chemicals company invested $40 million to support their research, and is going to fund their clinical trials as well, in exchange for the rights to sell resulting osteoporosis drugs. Ariad will get sales royalties.
The stock has been up and down, and it looks like it might be SLOWLY inching up again, but given that their drugs aren't fully developed yet, and clinical trials would take another three to five years, you would have to hold on to it for a long time for it to pay off. But when it does pay off,it will probably pay off big. Their osteoporosis drug so far has shown tremendous promise, with no known side effects in healthy animals except a thickening of the bones. Compare that to Merck's new osteoporosis drug Fosamax, proclaimed Merck's next billion dollar a year blockbuster when it first came out. Merck sent out a letter to doctors and pharmacies in March 1996, warning them about serious side effects related to the drug that hadn't been discovered in their clinical trials.
So there is still an opportunity for the right company with the right drug to take this market. For now though, I think I might buy a few shares this week just to see if I can get some short term capital gains.
Cuong Nguyen
P.S. -- check ot their web site at ariad.com |
