Hi, Phillip! I hope this thread generates some interest, since most of
the others are dedicated to day-trading and technical analysis. As
a start, I'd suggest you look at my post re. Siebel systems on the
100-baggers thread, and some of the other opinions on the
Siebel systems thread (symbol SEBL). Also, do I have to even
bother mentioning MSFT, INTC, CSCO as long-term strong buys?
I do have to disagree with one part of your premise, that the initial
price doesn't matter. Suppose (for example) that SEBL is going
to be worth $100 in 3 years. If you have $10K to invest, you can
buy 200 shares at $50, and have $20K in 3 years. If, on the other
hand, you bought at $40, you'd have 250 shares and $25K in
the same time. Conversely, suppose this (risky!) stock goes
into the bag and sinks to $25. You'll lose less than $4K if you get
in at the lower price, and over $5K if you pay too much. The
purchase price of anything (a stock, a house, a car) is *always*
relevant.
The riskier the stock, the more picking a good entry point matters.
Consider CSCO. Many people bought at $67, whereas I'm
still hunting for an entry below $60. I'll start 10% ahead of those
other buyers, and I'll be compounding off of that 10% advantage
forever. Now look at something like USRX. Even if the stock
is going to $200, it makes a huge difference (both long-term and
short-term) whether you've bought in at $90 or (later) at $60.
Cheers! |
