Comprehensive Smartphone Sell-In and Sell Through in CY2008 and Q4'2008 (Update II)
In early March Gartner reported Smartphone Sell Through to End Users for CY2008 and Q4'2008.
There was a significant difference between the 139.3 million smartphone CY2008 sell through to end users Gartner reported and the 160/161 million unit sell-in into channels estimated by Nokia or Informa Telecoms and Media (Informa). I've abstracted both in tables below.
I. 2008 Smartphone Unit Sell-In and Share (Nokia and Informa)
Units Q1'08 Q2'08 Q3'08 Q4'08 ¦ CY2008 %
======= ======= ======= ======= ¦ ======== =====
1. Nokia¹ 14.60m 15.30m 15.50m 15.10m ¦ 60.60m 37.6%
2. RIM² 4.31m 5.59m 6.05m 6.70m ¦ 22.65m 14.1%
3. Apple² 1.73m .72m 6.89m 4.36m ¦ 13.70m 8.5%
Others 12.67m 15.49m 15.77m 21.84m ¦ 64.05m 39.8%
------- ------- ------- ------- ¦ ------ ------
Total³ 33.30m 37.10m 44.20m 48.00m ¦ 161.0m 100.0%
=================================================================
Share Q1'08 Q2'08 Q3'08 Q4'08 ¦ CY2008 %
======= ======= ======= ======= ¦ ======== =====
1. Nokia 48.4% 41.2% 35.1% 31.5% ¦ 60.60m 37.6%
2. RIM 12.9% 15.1% 13.7% 14.0% ¦ 22.65m 14.1%
3. Apple 5.2% 1.9% 15.9% 9.1% ¦ 13.70m 8.5%
Others 38.0% 41.8% 35.7% 45.5% ¦ 64.05m 39.8%
------- ------- ------- ------- ¦ ------ ------
100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% ¦ 161.0m 100.0%
·
¹ Source: Nokia's volumes from Nokia's quarterly earning statements.
² Source: RIM's and Apple's volumes from their quarterly statements.
³ Source: Nokia's estimate: Informa reported 'almost' 162 million
units sold-in but provided no public quarterly breakdown.
Note: Canalys is, IMO, the most authoritative source for sell-in
but has not yet publicly reported Q4'08 and CY2008 sell-in & share.
• In CY2008 Strategy Analytics saw 1,178.1 million total handset units sold into channels (CYoCY growth of +4.9%). In CY2008 smartphone sell-in sales of 161 million units (Nokia's estimate) represented 13.7% of that total. Substantial growth as a share of the total.
• In CY2007 Strategy Analytics saw 1,122.6 million total handset units sold into channels (CYoCY growth of +12%). In CY2007 smartphone sell through sales of 117 million units (Nokia's and Canalys estimates) represented 10.4% of that total.
II. 2008 and Q4'08 Smartphone Unit Sell Through and Share¹ (Gartner)
Q4'07 Q4'07 CY2007 CY2007 ¦ Q4'08 Q4'08 CY2008 CY2008
Units Share Units Share ¦ Units Share Units Share
====== ====== ======= ====== ¦ ====== ====== ======= ======
Nokia 18.7m 50.9% 60.5m 49.4% ¦ 15.6m 40.8% 60.9m 43.7%
RIM 4.0m 10.9% 11.8m 9.6% ¦ 7.4m 19.5% 23.1m 16.6%
Apple 1.9m 5.2% 3.3m 2.7% ¦ 4.1m 10.7% 11.4m 8.2%
HTC 1.4m 3.7% 3.7m 3.0% ¦ 1.6m 4.3% 5.9m 4.2%
Samsung 0.7m 1.8% - - ¦ 1.6m 4.2% - -
Sharp - 6.9m 5.6% ¦ - - 5.2m 3.8%
Others 10.1m 27.4% 36.2m 29.6% ¦ 7.8m 20.5% 32.7m 23.5%
------ ------ ------- ----- ¦ ------ ------ ------- ------
Total 36.8m 100.0% 122.3m 100.0% ¦ 38.1m 100.0% 139.3m 100.0%
Growth YoY ¦ +4.9% +13.9%
·
¹ Source: Gartner (March 2009)
² Note: For HTC Gartner only counts the company's own-branded devices and
exclude devices that HTC designs and which have an operator's or an OEMs brand.
• In CY2008 Gartner saw 1222.2 million total handset units sold through to end users (CYoCY growth of +6.0%). In CY2008 smartphone sell through sales of 139.3 million units represented 11.4% of that total.
• In CY2007 Gartner saw 1152.9 million total handset units sold through to end users (CYoCY growth of +12%). In CY2007 smartphone sell through sales of 122.3 million units represented 10.6% of that total.
III. CY2008 Smartphone Unit Sell-In and Share v. Smartphone Sell-Through and Share
Sell-In¹ ¦ Sell Through¹ Sell Through
CY2008 CY2008 ¦ CY2008 CY2008 Variance To
Units Share ¦ Units Share Sell-In
======= ====== ¦ ======= ====== =================
Nokia 60.60m 37.6% ¦ 60.92m 43.7% +0.32m ¦ +6.1 ppt.
RIM 22.65m 14.1% ¦ 23.15m 16.6% +0.50m ¦ +2.5 ppt.
Apple 13.70m 8.5% ¦ 11.42m 8.2% -2.28m ¦ -0.3 ppt.
====================================================================
Subtotal 96.95m 60.2% ¦ 95.49m 68.5% -1.46m ¦ -8.3 ppt.
====================================================================
Others 64.05m 39.8% ¦ - -
HTC - - ¦ 5.90m 4.2%
Sharp - - ¦ 5.23m 3.8%
Others ¦ 32.67m 23.5%
------- ------ ¦ ------- ------ -------
Total 161.00m¹ 100.0% ¦ 139.29m¹ 100.0% -21.71m -13.5%
·
¹ Sources: Nokia for Sell-In; Gartner for Sell Through
Individual Vendor Sell-In units as reported by Nokia, RIM, Apple
IV. Smartphone Sell Through to End Users by Operating System, 4Q'08 and CY2008 (Gartner)
Q4'07 Q4'07 CY2007 CY2007 ¦ Q4'08 Q4'08 CY2008 CY2008
Units Share Units Share ¦ Units Share Units Share
====== ====== ======= ====== ¦ ====== ====== ======= ======
Symbian 22.9m 62.3% 77.7m 63.5% ¦ 17.9m 47.1% 72.9m 52.4%
RIM BB 4.0m 10.9% 11.8m 9.6% ¦ 7.4m 19.5% 23.1m 16.6%
Microsoft WM 4.4m 11.9% 14.7m 12.0% ¦ 4.7m 12.4% 16.5m 11.8%
Apple OS X 1.9m 5.2% 3.3m 2.7% ¦ 4.1m 10.7% 11.4m 8.2%
Linux (var.) 2.7m 7.3% 11.8m 9.6% ¦ 3.2m 8.4% 11.2m 8.1
Palm OS 0.4m 1.2% 1.8m 1.4% ¦ 0.3m 0.9% 2.5m 1.8%
Other OSs¹ 0.4m 1.1% 1.3m 1.1% ¦ 0.4m 1.1% 1.5m 1.1%
------ ------ ------- ----- ¦ ------ ------ ------- ------
Total 36.8m 100.0% 122.3m 100.0% ¦ 38.1m 100.0% 139.3m 100.0%
Growth YoY ¦ +4.9% +13.9%
·
¹ The "Other OSs" category includes sales of Sharp Sidekick devices based on
the Danger platform.
V. Smartphone Source Statements from Nokia's Quarterly Earning Statements in 2008
• CY 2008: Of the total industry mobile device volumes, converged mobile device industry volumes in 2008 increased to 161 million units, based on Nokia’s estimate, compared with an estimated 117 million units in 2007. Our own converged mobile device volumes were 60.6 million units in 2008, compared with 60.5 million units in 2007. Nokia shipped over 36 million Nokia Nseries and approximately 10 million Nokia Eseries devices in 2008. [page 4 at link below]
• Q4 2008: Of the total industry mobile device volumes, converged mobile device industry volumes in the fourth quarter 2008 increased to 48.0 million units, based on Nokia’s estimate, compared with an estimated 40.1 million units in the fourth quarter 2007 and 44.2 million units in the third quarter 2008. Our own converged mobile device volumes were 15.1 million units in the fourth quarter 2008, compared with 18.8 million units in the fourth quarter 2007 and 15.5 million units in the third quarter 2008. We shipped approximately 8 million Nokia Nseries and over 3 million Nokia Eseries devices during the fourth quarter 2008. [page 4]
nokia.com
• Q3 2008: Of the total industry mobile device volumes, converged mobile device industry volumes in the third quarter 2008 increased to 44.2 million units, based on Nokia’s estimate, compared with an estimated 31.7 million units in the third quarter 2007. Our own converged mobile device volumes were 15.5 million units in the third quarter 2008, compared with 16.0 million units in the third quarter 2007. We shipped almost 9 million Nokia Nseries and 3 million Nokia Eseries devices during the third quarter 2008. [page 4]
media.corporate-ir.net
• Q2 2008: Of the total industry mobile device volumes, converged mobile device industry volumes in the second quarter 2008 increased to 37.1 million units, based on Nokia’s estimate, compared with an estimated 27.0 million units in the second quarter 2007. Our own converged mobile device volumes rose to 15.3 million units in the second quarter 2008, compared with 13.9 million units in the second quarter 2007. We shipped over 10 million Nokia Nseries and almost 2 million Nokia Eseries devices during the second quarter 2008. [page 4]
media.corporate-ir.net
• Q1 2008: Converged device industry volumes increased to an estimated 33.3 million units, compared with an estimated 23.5 million units in the first quarter 2007. Our own converged device volumes rose to 14.6 million units, compared with 11.8 million units in the first quarter 2007. We shipped close to 10 million Nokia Nseries and almost 2 million Nokia Eseries devices during the first quarter 2008. [page 3]
media.corporate-ir.net
Nokia's Symbian/S60 Smartphone Quarterly Mix (approximate units by class)
Q1'08 Q2'08 Q3'08 Q4'08 ¦ CY2008 %
======= ======= ======= ======= ¦ ======== =====
NSeries 9.9m 10.1m 8.9m 8.0m ¦ ~36.9m 61%
ESeries 1.9m 1.9m 3.0m 3.1m ¦ ~9.9m 16%
Generic¹ 2.8m 3.3m 3.6m 4.0m ¦ ~13.7m 23%
------- ------- ------- ------- ¦ -------- -----
Total 14.6m 15.3m 15.5m 15.1m ¦ 60.6m 100%
Note 1: Source Statements for RIM's and Apple's smartphone volumes in my 'Nokia's View' tables are from Nokia's quarterly earnings statements and Barclays (formerly Lehman Brothers) quarterly updates of them. The source of 'Others' volume is extrapolated from Nokia's total view minus the sum of Nokia's + Rim's + Apple's reported unit sales.
Note 2: Nokia refers to smartphones as 'converged devices. I think that one of the reasons is that Microsoft and others lay trademarked claims to the term 'smartphone' (Microsoft's claim is serial number 78169887, registered in October 2002) just as Nokia has trademarked 'Communicator.' It is not clear to me whether or not when reporting their global view of converged devices, and their own smartphone shipments in their quarterly earnings reports, they include their Maemo Linux based NSeries Internet Tablets without Cellular capability, as well as Symbian/S60 devices. Regardless, at this time, that is a very modest quantity of devices, perhaps a million or so on an annual basis.
VI. Informa Telecoms & Media on 2008 Smartphone Sell-In and Juniper on Growth
>> A recent Informa Telecoms & Media report has revealed trends about the global smartphone industry in the next few years. According to the report, open handsets will do better than the ones powered by proprietary systems. The report also forecasts that the Android platform, owing to its open pedigree will outsell iPhones worldwide by the year 2012. As for Symbian, whose dominant position is under threat owing to continuous decline in its market share, it will be able to regain its lost glory as soon as it switches to its new Open Source OS expected in 2010. According to the report, In 2008, almost 162 million smartphones were sold, surpassing laptop sales for the first time. The analyst forecasts smartphone penetration will reach 13.5 percent of new handsets sold this year but is set to treble by 2013 - to well over a third (38 percent) of mobile devices. ###
tinyurl.com
>> Shake-up Seen for Smartphone OS Market
John Walko (London)
EE Times Europe
03/09/2009 2:22 PM
eetimes.eu
There is a major change taking place in the operating systems being deployed in smartphones, with Symbian being impacted most by the emerging OS's such as Android and proprietary systems such as that used in Apple's iPhone, according to market researchers at Informa Telecoms and Media.
"In 2008, there were almost 162 million smartphones sold, surpassing notebook sales for the first time," according to Gavin Byrne, research analyst at Informa. Just over 49 percent of smartphones sold in 2008 were based on Symbian OS, a significant drop from a near 65 percent share it enjoyed one year earlier. While this is in large part due to the relatively poor performance of Nokia’s smartphone range, it is also an indication of the popularity enjoyed by competing platforms including Linux, BlackBerry OS, Microsoft Windows Mobile, OS X iPhone and new entrant Android."
However, Byrne suggests that the Symbian Foundation's move to adopt open source will help it maintain its leadership over Android, Linux and Microsoft.
Openness is a key criterion, adds Byrne, while all in the mobile telecoms space now see the revenue potential of applications and services. Now more than ever, handset vendors must develop strategies to maximize these new revenue streams while reducing costs, said Byrne.
Informa's report stresses that as more and more value moves from device hardware to software, and also to content, developers are becoming increasingly central to the mobile handset value chain. Platform and applications development are in many cases already reaping the benefits of open source components and approaches, with LiMo Foundation, Android and the Symbian Foundation being the most significant device platforms in market.
"The decision to move the Symbian platform to open source is crucial in maintaining its leadership over Android, Linux and Microsoft", said Byrne.
Informa says the shift in open source is exemplified by moves such as LG's recent announcement that it would launch 50 new mobile handsets using Microsoft Windows Mobile. In the past year Motorola, Sony Ericsson and HTC have also significantly modified their approach to the smartphone market.
It has also become a growing focus for ODMs and for the operator focussed strategies of ZTE and Huawei.
Byrne adds that the growing importance of content development is reflected in the efforts that Apple, Qualcomm, Google, Nokia, Microsoft, and Adobe have gone to facilitate development and a route to market, as represented by their application stores.
Informa predicts that while total new handset sales will fall 10.1 per cent year on year through 2009, sales of smartphones are expected to grow 35.3 per cent.
By 2013, smartphone penetration is forecast to treble to just over 38 per cent, accounting for almost four in ten of all handsets sold worldwide. In 2009, smartphones are expected to account for around 13.5 percent of all new handsets sold worldwide. ###
>> Juniper is slightly less bullish on smartphones, predicting that smartphones will account for 23 percent of handsets sold in 2013, driven by the proliferation of online stores selling specialised applications that will make the gadgets more useful to individual people it says in a report. Juniper predicts that 300 million smartphones will be sold in 2013, and that the segment will weather the economic downturn better than other handset segments as people think "they will be getting more for their money by buying high-end devices". Handset vendors will see the margins on handsets fall and will need to diversify into service provision with high-value content according to Juniper?something that most of them are already doing, led by Nokia. ###
tinyurl.com
VII. Gartner's PR Text and Original Tables for CY2008 and Q4'08 Smartphone Sell Through
Gartner has 4 tables at the link below. The tables I created above round quantities down and so do those that appear at the end of this post.
>> Gartner Says Worldwide Smartphone Sales Reached Its Lowest Growth Rate With 3.7 Per Cent Increase in Fourth Quarter of 2008
Samsung Entered Top Five for the First Time
Gartner
Egham, UK
March 11, 2009
gartner.com
In the fourth quarter of 2008, worldwide sales of smartphones to end users reached 38.1 million units, an increase of 3.7 per cent on the fourth quarter of 2007, according to Gartner, Inc. Global sales of smartphones for 2008 reached 139.3 million devices, up 13.9 per cent compared with 2007.
Roberta Cozza, research director, Gartner, said: "After a strong third quarter with new product introductions, sequential growth slowed down again in the fourth quarter as fewer compelling new products and the worsened economic climate continued to make data plans associated with smartphones out of reach for most consumers. In general in 2008, the focus from vendors and operators on increasing their smartphone portfolios remained very strong. Samsung, RIM, HTC and Apple saw their volumes and share increase during 2008 (see Table 2 at link above), thanks to their ability to offer compelling device experiences and touch interfaces."
As a proportion of all mobile device sales, smartphones remained stable at 12 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2008, from 11 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2007. Samsung entered the top five vendors ranking for the first time (see Table 1 at link above), replacing Sharp. RIM recorded an increase in sales both sequentially and year-over-year, while Nokia's volumes continued to fall.
Nokia maintained its No. 1 position, but in the fourth quarter of 2008 its smartphone sales declined by 16.8 per cent year-on-year. This also contributed to the overall weakness of the global smartphone segment in 4Q08, as the company commanded 40.8 per cent of the market. Nokia's entry-level smartphone range will continue to offer good value for the money, but Nokia remains more exposed to pressure from competition in the higher end of the consumer smartphone market as the Nseries loses its appeal.
Apple's initial sell-through dropped significantly as sales fell during the fourth quarter. Nevertheless, Apple maintained its third position in the global rankings. Apple built an inventory of about two million iPhone units in the third quarter of 2008 which did not reduce significantly in the fourth quarter. With Apple's sequential decline, volumes were driven by new product introductions such as the RIM Storm, the T-Mobile G1 (the first product based on Google's Android platform), and strong performance from Samsung's touchscreen products. HTC had a very strong quarter with record sales of its HTC-branded devices and operator-branded devices.
The Smartphone OS Market in Q4'08 and CY 2008
In the smartphone operating system (OS) market, Symbian's share of the global market decreased to 47.1 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2008, down from its 2007 share of 62.3 per cent (see Table 3 at link above). Pressure from new platforms entering the consumer space, the continued decline of Nokia's smartphone sales and the weakness of the Japanese mobile device market have negatively affected Symbian's share. Meanwhile, RIM successfully grew its year-on-year share of the global smartphone market to 19.5 per cent from 10.9 per cent. Gartner estimated that Android smartphones accounted for 20 per cent of total Linux sales in the fourth quarter of 2008.
In the fourth quarter of 2008, Microsoft's share of the global smartphone market improved sequentially, with unit sales up 16 per cent over 3Q08. This was mainly driven by the popularity of Samsung Omnia and touchscreen products from HTC. Sales of Linux-based smartphones were up by 19 per cent year-over-year, mainly through Android-based smartphones being available through T-Mobile during the fourth quarter of 2008.
Regional Smartphone Markets
On a regional level, the North American smartphone market continued to grow, despite the larger economic problems. Smartphones account for roughly 20 per cent of sales in this region, a dramatic increase over the past year. Smartphone sales in North America grew 69 per cent in 2008. While sales will grow at a slower pace, the market will be driven by support from operators in the region aggressively pushing data plans. Smartphones will also see increased competition from full-featured enhanced phones that may offer a full qwerty keyboard. These devices offer much of the functionality of a smartphone, but at a lower price.
Smartphone sales in Asia/Pacific recorded a 2.3 per cent sequential growth, reaching 7.5 million unit sales, even though overall mobile device sales dropped by 9.2 per cent. The drop in overall sales was attributable to weak consumer confidence, but sales of high-end devices remained good, leading to positive sequential growth for smartphones. Market leader Nokia lost market share marginally by 2 per cent to Apple. Others that gained in the region were RIM and Samsung. Touch-based devices continued to attract consumers in this segment.
Smartphone sales in Europe, the Middle East and Africa (EMEA) were up by only 2 per cent in 4Q08 compared with the same period last year. Despite replacement purchases slowing down in Western Europe, smartphone sales still recorded a 9.6 per cent increase in the region. Samsung was the main contributor to the growth in Europe thanks to the success of its Omnia touchscreen smartphone. Samsung's share nearly tripled during the fourth quarter of 2008 and the strong push of its touchscreen offerings in EMEA put pressure on HTC.
"In 2009, mobile platforms will be a major battleground as the associated user experience and role of the ecosystem grow in importance," Cozza concludes. ###
Caveat: The usual applies. It is possible and perhaps probable that in creating the table templates I chose to employ for this exercise, and in extracting data and compiling the tables above, and those that will appear in future posts on this board, that I have made typos, transposition errors, or calculation errors. If anyone spots one I'd appreciate being so advised.
# # #
- Eric - |
