<Jan 18, 2005 (CIDRAP News) – The World Health Organization (WHO) today added two more cases to its tally of confirmed human cases of H5N1 avian flu in Vietnam, and WHO officials reportedly said another 10 suspected cases are under investigation there.
The agency increased its case count for Vietnam to 33, including 25 deaths, up from 31 cases with 23 deaths as of Jan 13. With 17 cases, including 12 deaths, in Thailand, the total since late 2003 comes to 50 cases, 37 of them fatal.
WHO spokeswoman Maria Cheng said Vietnamese officials have reported that up to 10 more suspected human cases are being investigated and that the disease has spread to all regions of the country, according to a Reuters report today. Previous reports indicated that recent outbreaks were limited to southern Vietnam.
On Jan 13 the WHO had reported 31 human cases with 23 deaths in Vietnam. The next day the agency said it had received informal reports of two more cases, one of them fatal. The fatal case was in an 18-year-old woman from the southern province of Hau Giang who had died Jan 10. The other case involved a 35-year-old woman from Tra Vinh, also in the south, who was in critical condition.
Today's updated case count showed two more deaths than listed in the Jan 13 tally, but the WHO didn't make clear who the other victim was.
At least four people have died of the avian virus in Vietnam since late December, according to the WHO and other reports. They have included two boys, aged 6 and 9, a 16-year-old girl, and the 18-year-old woman from Hau Giang province. Besides the 35-year-old woman in Tra Vinh, an 18-year-old woman remained in critical condition today, according to an Agence France-Presse report.
The change in the WHO case count came after media reports of several new suspected cases in Vietnam over the past few days.
A Voice of America report today said a 17-year-old boy had died of suspected avian flu Jan 15 in the southern province of Bac Lieu. The report also said a woman with suspected avian flu died in Tra Vinh on Jan 14, but it did not list her age.
In addition, a Reuters report posted on the ProMED-mail Web site yesterday said four other Vietnamese with suspected avian flu had been hospitalized Jan 15 and 16. The story said a 48-year-old man, his younger brother, and a 62-year-old man were hospitalized Jan 15 in Hanoi, and the 48-year-old subsequently died. In addition, a 14-year-old boy from Tra Vinh was hospitalized Jan 16 in Ho Chi Minh City, the story said. ...continued...>
It's time to start a graph for H5N1/H7N7/H12N8 infections and deaths.
o = cases x = deaths [cumulative]
19 Jan oooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo 50
19 Jan xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx 37 [75%]
Here is the sars graph for comparison:
x = 10 deaths.
Cumulative deaths
26 Feb ?
..5 Mar x
12 Mar x
19 Mar x
26 Mar xx
...2 Apr xxxxx
...9 Apr xxxxxxxxxx
.16 Apr xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
.23 Apr xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
.30 Apr xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
..6 May xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx [478]
For Avian Influenza:
So far, 50 cases and 37 fatalities = 74% That 74% doesn't include those of the 50 who are still sick and might die, so the 74% might reach 80%.
That is about as bad as it gets.
There are something like 6 billion people and since immunity is low, and virulence of influenzas is high for some types and the H5N1 killer can combine with a virulent variety, there could be 75% of 5 billion people killed, which is something like 3 billion.
By the time we have more than a billion killed and similar numbers seriously sick, we are in big trouble, especially if we are one of the dead or sick.
Economic activity will grind almost to a halt other than for essential goods and services. People will dramatically change their daily activities, excluding human contact.
Mqurice |
