Semi Equipment Analysis Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis

SOXX 303.84

+1.3%

Dec 22 4:00 PM EST

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To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (10028)	6/9/2003 12:59:00 AM
From: Cary Salsberg	Read Replies (1) of 95625

RE: "...time is an important element...upward pace is unsustainable...when business will upturn..." Time is much less important in this extremely low interest environment. The upward pace is unsustainable, but may or may not be sustained for a while longer. The key is the "when" in "when business will upturn." The bear market case depend on "if" not "when" and says that "if" should be considered unlikely. The market move has been based on increased conviction that the bear arguement is wrong and that "when" is becoming very likely. I believe the market has room to rally until the "when" becomes a certainty. At that point, a correction based on valuation, a variation of sell the news, will occur.

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