Siebel Systems (SEBL) - strong buy? Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Siebel Systems (SEBL) - strong buy?

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To: Clam Clam who wrote (1000)	12/18/1997 10:30:00 PM
From: Bobo	Read Replies (1) of 6974

Interesting conversations regarding Siebel tonight. I was with Andersen in a prior life and wanted to share a few thoughts with this crowd that spends a lot of time talking over the companies is this space. - Like Clam states, SFA is one of the most risky and often least ROI areas of enterprise software. There are probably numerous installs with Siebel, Vantive and everyone else where the software just never gets used or used for just a fraction of its functionality. One of my AC buddies mentioned that the #1 challenge is clearly changing the culture around the system. I have implemented Aurum before and it is simply not easy. - This space is way overhyped. Look at the fact that in ERP Peoplesoft, Baan, Oracle (apps business) and SAP have all grown in excess of 50% for a l-o-n-g time. Scopus and Clarify have hit the dirt way early in the evolution of the segment. SFA is just not a necessity like financials, ERP and payroll/ HR. IMO it is just not nearly as big a space as research firms think or all the player would still be quite healthy. - I am not sure this is a space to make good money in. Siebel (likely to be the dominate player) already commands a HUGE valuation and Vantive (whether you love them or not) seems to be just making their numbers. I guess I would conclude that if the market was really strong, there would be alot more market pull to help Vantive. - ERP competition seems likely w/i the next 12 months. I know that Siebel disagrees but the appeal of an "appendage" of the ERP system being and SFA module has got to be quite appealing to corporate customers. Just seems like alot of better places to make good returns.

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