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Technology Stocks : America On-Line: will it survive ...?
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To: Kerry Phineas who wrote (10052)5/18/1998 1:17:00 PM
From: dale sicher  Read Replies (3) of 13594
 
Kerry,

For a moment there I thought you were talking about Sinatra! Forgot about my post from yesterday.

I think it has everything to do with AOL and other bubble stocks. These stocks do exceptionally well in a good market but when that market turns south, they will also get hit exceptionally hard.

I think the author started in 1928 because before that the market exhibited 3 year cycles, not four. Anyway, makes for interesting reading, no? The statistics would indicate a 68% chance (3 sigma) for a 25% correction (plus or minus 10%) off the recent high of about 9200 sometime between now and January of 1999. I know that sounds horrendous but the point is it has happened time and time again and I doubt many people caught in any of those periodic (and apparently somewhat regular) downdrafts in any of those previous cycles would have believed it could happen (just like today).
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