SIA cuts IC outlook in '03 and '04 despite Asia growth
By Mark LaPedus
Semiconductor Business News
(06/11/03 05:36 p.m. EST)
siliconstrategies.com
SAN JOSE, Calif. -- Despite a surge in IC demand from Asia-Pacific, the Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA) on Wednesday (June 11) lowered its chip forecasts for 2003 and 2004, but was slightly more upbeat than previously expected for 2005 and 2006.
The San Jose-based trade group projected worldwide semiconductor sales would increase 10.1 percent to $154.9 billion in 2003, 16.8 percent to $180.9 billion in 2004, 5.8 percent to $191.5 billion in 2005, and 7 percent to $204.9 billion in 2006.
The compound annual growth rate for the IC industry will hit 9.8 percent for the period from 2003 through 2006, according to the SIA.
This represents the latest in a range of falling forecasts for the SIA. In June of 2002, the SIA originally projected the worldwide semiconductor industry will grow by 23.2 percent in 2003 and 20.9 percent in 2004 (see June 5, 2002 story ).
Then, warning of a slower growth rate for the IC industry, the SIA last November lowered its chip forecast, saying the worldwide semiconductor market will increase by 19.8 percent in 2003. It also projected 21.7 percent growth for 2004, but dropped hints the IC industry would experience another major downturn in 2005.
But by April of 2003, the SIA ended up revising down the forecast. “Our forecast was 19% but due to geopolitical impact we see 10-to-15% now,” said George Scalise, president of the SIA, in April (see April 4 story ).
Scalise narrowed the forecast to a modest 10.1 percent for 2003, but painted a rosy picture in 2004. "In 2004, the growth is led by a strong increase in memory, including a 43 percent jump in DRAM and a 25 percent increase in flash, and supported by double digit growth in other product sectors," he said.
"The recovery is broad based across computer, consumer and communications applications as they all continue to be drivers for the industry,” he said. “The forecast contemplates a return to higher IT spending levels and the emergence of multi-function products such as smart phones."
But still, the dynamics are changing in the semiconductor industry. "Semiconductor consumption is forecast to continue a migration from the Americas to Asia Pacific, reflecting the outsourcing of electronic equipment manufacturing, including component sourcing and design services, to the region," he noted.
In terms of regions, Asia-Pacific is the largest chip market in 2003, followed by Japan, Europe, and the Americas.
The Americas market will decline 2.1 percent to $30.6 billion in 2003, and then grow 15.7 percent to $35.4 billion in 2004. In 2005, the SIA predicts that market to remain nearly flat with a slight decline of .09 percent to $35.1 billion, and then resume growth of 8.8 percent in 2006 to $38.24 billion.
Europe will grow 11.8 percent in 2003 to $31.1 billion, 13.6 percent to $35.3 billion in 2004, 4.7 percent to $36.9 billion in 2005, and 6.1 percent to $39.2 billion in 2006.
The Japanese market will grow 17.5 percent to $35.8 billion in 2003, increase 14.1 percent to $41.9 billion in 2004, 6.5 percent to $43.5 billion in 2005, and 4.9 percent in 2006 to $45.6 billion.
Of all the semiconductor regions, the Asia-Pacific region will experience the strongest growth in the next few years. It is forecast to grow 12.1 percent to $57.3 billion in 2003, 20.9 percent to $69.3 billion in 2004, and 9.4 percent to $75.8 billion in 2005. In 2006, Asia Pacific will report growth of 7.9 percent to $81.8 billion. |
