<Reg do you think that they would be a good fit under IBM's wing?>
Good to see you on this thread..... IBM has the combination of aggressive, smart management and deep pockets and distribution that can maximize the assets inherent in NOVL. It is my opinion that the election of a CEO is just not enough to compete against MSFT, even with loose partnership of ORCL, SUNW, & NSCP. These companies may not be able to compete agaisnt effectively MSFT on thier own, and will turn on each other (reference ORCL/NSCP beef, IBM/NSCP beef, etc.) when market share starts to get competitive. Only a true equity swap, and not a contractual partnership will glue the companies together with a enough security to forge ahead in the heat of battle.
By forging the Notes/Domino techonology and their burgeoning java resources with the NDS stuff, IBM comes much closer to competing wtih IIS 3.0 and NT without becoming overly dependent on the NT platform. Then, if they decide to capitalize on my OS/2 strategy.....
MSFT is a superior investment. Nobody in the tech wrold seems to like them, but they do what needs to be done, when it needs to be done, and the Street rewards them for it (reference the revenue deferral policy that practically guarantees no negative earnings surprises). It is the momentum that MSFT has that may be the biggest problem for Schmidt. NOVL must do more than actually overcome MSFT's server growth. There is speculation on this thread about MSFT's true NT sales numbers, but if you go to Wall Street, the insurance district, Silicon alley or any of the high tech centers in New York, everybody is installing NT 4.0 like it is the "in thing," and nobody is even considering Netware or other NOVL products. Supposing this was soomehow reversed, NT now has one of the richest Intranet development platforms available (Office 97), which has hooks tied directly into IIS 3.0 while NOVL has no high profile development products (the wordperfect suite would have made a nice start, but it would have taken a lot of work from an OO point of view and was bought at a significant premium - then sold at a significant discount, IBM's smartsuite/Notes/Java combo is a stroinger competitor). They are also planning to pre-empt a strategic comeback by NOVL mgmt; by implementing Active directory services in NT 5.0. Thier technology does not have to be on par with NOVL's or better, all they have to do is make the technolgoy incompatible (or create the illusion taht it is) once they feel they have gained significant marketshare. This has been done many, many times in the past (Geoworks Ensemble, DR-DOS, OS/2, etc.).to shut out the competition, regardless of the level of technological sophistication.
What NOVL needs is a carnivorous culture, and I don't think that a single CEO can provide that in the short term. The (financial) position that I took was under the assumption that a carnivore would come in and take advantage of the situation.
Nuff rambling, if you haven't read my (dated) editorial on the carnivorous mentality, please do (notice the nifty graphics:-): rcmfinancial.com |
