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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis

SOXX 312.18

-0.2%

4:00 PM EST

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To: Sarmad Y. Hermiz who wrote (10174)	6/18/2003 11:31:48 AM
From: Kirk ©	of 95536

Thanks. I would be interested to know how you view it. Is it consistent with a trend toward higher rev figures in coming Q, or is it a retreat from current expectations ? I think analyst estimates of future earnings has been proven long ago to be more like a lemming race to see who jumps off the cliff last. Nobody wants to be last so they chase each other like lemmings. I've used this in my investing since 1997 or 1998 when I read David Dreman's book amazon.com which made this more than clear that my hunches were ccorrect. One of my fav stocks, LRCX, has gone from a PEG of 1.2 to 2.8. Analysts have not changed their earnings estimates much... YET. but I bet folks are encouraged by news that they are getting business at IBM for copper and folks like HP and Dell want AMD to stay in business so they are ordering AMD chips which are built by IBM with LRCX etchers... My hunch the more than doubling in LRCX since the bottom reflects this. I think stock price tells the analysts to look for a reason to justify the direction and they comply. Analysts are there to help brokers churn stocks. They are not there to help us get rich without paying a commission. I believe Sandy Weil paid $400M of Citibank shareholder cash in extortion to Spitzer so he wouldn't have to admit this publicly. I like da cheif's advice "think like a criminal if you want to do well." BTW, the easy money in LRCX and others 2nd or 3rd tier companies, has already been made (and some is sitting in cash in my case). Best to use the swings to try to accumulate more and more shares over time while spinning out cash to spend and diversify with. Returns going forward might be little different than AMAT and AMAT probably has less risk. FWIW... what you paid! LOL BTW, unlike Cary, who has good results just buying Tier 1 companies, I like to diversify across three levels as the 3rd tiers often ofter the best returns where the gains from a winner can cover many losers. Many ways to skin a cat. Kirk

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