RD, lets hope these are the main problems for prln in the near future. Moving to that stage would be accompanied by a nice appreciation in stock price. I can understand PGs comment that prln is on pins and needles awaiting results. These results are crucial. As PG implies, prln feels they have a medication but are bringing it out under the new dietary code. As a result, they can't make claims about disease impact but they can claim it helps symptoms. They will not be able to get exorbitant prices such as the $10,000/year for AZT but they will avoid the cost of FDA trials, get to market and have revenues 5 years sooner. It seems like a good and fair strategy to me. It will be great for prln and shareholders and also to AIDS patients using it and paying for it. If it turns out to be curative or has a powerful effect that would make it equal to or better than most "medication" so much the better for everyone. The Bastyr study results will have a lot to say about that possibility.
My understanding is that the Bastyr results on the Androvir study will be out in the next 2-3 weeks but prln does not yet know what they are. The Androcar study has the staggered enrollment where the results are coming in piecemeal. Since the study takes 3-4 months and some patients have recently started it, it will be at least 3-4 months until those results are completed. I also understand they will be making an announcement sometime in the dec-jan period about more news from the CRADA (Cooperative Research and Development Agreement) with NIH in which they are looking at how the AIDS virus replicates and how it kills immune cells. Earlier this year prln announced a discovery about HIV function with potential great significance for research in genreal on AIDS. We will probably have to figure out how much any such further findings are likely to benefit prln in particular.
Of course, the Bastyr results are crucial. The study is still in the category of an Androvar safety but it will have indications of outcome with Androvir. If results are good, then prln goes to market soon, word will travel many ways, and the problems of prln become those you bring up RD--but those would be problems at a different dimension.
If the results from the Bastyr are not promising then there is still Androcar but pessimism will then be rampant about Androcar study results. At any rate, if prln has the money to get through the next year that is certainly adequate at this point. The die will be cast well before then. If Androvir or Androcar comes through prln won't have to worry about money. This all, however, still remains to be seen.
Larry |
