Agouron Pharmaceuticals (AGPH) Message Board

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Biotech / Medical : Agouron Pharmaceuticals (AGPH)

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To: billkirn who wrote (1021)	7/23/1997 9:46:00 AM
From: Biomaven	of 6136

Bill - There are a number of problems with your calculations: 1. You can't simply annualize weekly scrips. Not everyone who is prescribed thge drug stays on it for a full year - patients die, become resistant, switch PI's, switch doctors, simply stop taking it. 2. You have some arithmetic errors: You appear to assume a 61 week year :) 25% of $1.22 billion isn't $405 million, but around $300 million. 3. I don't think we're going to get a PE in the 15-30 range. I think there's going to be too much concern that Nelf will be a short-lived drug (< 5 years?) for it to justify those multiples. Still the numbers look good! Peter

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