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Technology Stocks : Wind River going up, up, up!

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To: Allen Benn who wrote (1023)5/3/1997 12:46:00 AM
From: Allen Benn   of 10309
 
Incidentally, INTS did not fair well at the H&Q show. They showed that tired and phony market survey showing pSOS+ with 22% market share. They also claimed their only competition is in-house developers - who are responsible for 92% of all embedded system targets. (Not true, it is more like 50% nowadays - unless you include all microcontrollers (4-bit, 8-bit, 16-bit as well as 32- and 64-bit microprocessors). But this would be misleading.

Of course the reason for the 92% claim is so they can avoid exposing WIND as a serious competitive threat. (Actually, that is correct strategy for INTS, given their relatively weak market and product position. It is in their best interest not to mention WIND, especially not to invite comparison.)

St Charles points out that the long-awaited pRISM+ is an enterprise solution - meaning that engineers around the world will be able to work jointly on corporate development projects. When asked how this implied more than an ordinary communication system, St. Charles turned it over to Gupta to answer. His answer was that pRISM+ would add value by extracting all system tables from the target and storing them in a database acceptable to all engineers on the development team. When asked how this was any different than what Tornado does today (recall this minimization of the target is a hallmark of Tornado, and is why so many 3rd party tools can integrate easily), Gupta said pRISM+ would get more of the symbols off the target.

In short, INTS is not executing and is in trouble. In order to survive as a secondary player, but one with significant market presence, INTS must execute perfectly. The company must improve its strategy and direct its limited resources at appropriate strategic and tactical targets.

As far as I know, MWAR did not receive much attention at the show. At this point, MWAR is too small, too little product, and not physically located where the action is to be expected to command much respect. They will have to pull something out of the hat for this to change anytime soon.

On the Java front, here's how things stack up with WIND, INTS and MWAR.

MWAR was the first to license Java JDK, directly from Sun before Sun turned it over the JavaSoft - and they got a good deal. JavaSoft is trying to get them properly in the licensing camp, but MWAR resists for dollar reasons - causing some irritation.

INTS is using a clone for there JavaOS, much to the dismay of JavaSoft.

WIND is working directly with JavaSoft, and has excellent relations, which ties into the Oracle deal, etc. The only problem is WIND is required to pay higher royalties than either MWAR or INTS, which can, and has, cost design wins.

Long term, expect JavaSoft to resolve its problems with MWAR. Expect INTS to stay with clones as long as incompatibilities are manageable.

Allen
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