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Strategies & Market Trends : gem-x's incredibly accurate Elliott Wave forecasts.

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To: gem-x who wrote (1020)	8/28/2001 9:30:09 PM
From: mishedlo	of 2290

Gem - We are closer in agreement than you might think. I do not see in waves, but that does not mean they do not occur. In fact I am sure that they do, but there are other simpler methods that have worked consistently during this bear market. When overbought just sell and go short. Wait for profits. Cover on oversold. That is all it took to make a fortune this year. Unfortunately hindsight is 20/20 and I did not do that. With a small modification one could have done better. The longer we stayed oversold the bigger the bounce and the longer we would stay overbought. Why I say we are in agreement is cause I do think there will be a monster rally at some point. If there REALLY is an uptick in business insetad of the crap guesses we see at INTC and BS from CSCO about stabilzation. We will explode if it happens that the market is hugely oversold and heavy in puts at the time. Right now, the powers that be simply refuse to let this market die. What we need is panic and every damn time we are close some nonsense rallies it. Until we panic we simply are just going to grind lower IMHO. What I want to see is a 3 day panic. Best chance is during tax selling in OCT. Then we can see some real fear. Right now, call buying has been huge. Hard to rally strong into that. I screwed up April royally so I am no genious. I am trying to learn. If we start to rally in Nov I think the game will change from Sell overbought to Buy oversold. It seems the same but is very very different. In a bear market buying on oversold can get one in a lot of trouble in a hurry. Look at SEBL EMC NTAP VRTS etc etc etc. Selling overbought has worked every time with just a modicum of patience. In Nov or end of Oct I think the tune may change. Buy oversold but overbought can last a longer time. I am pretty sure this will happen in waves but I believe my way will be simpler. M

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