The 27 countries listed above either currently possess ballistic missiles or may possess ballistic missiles by the year 2000. Other than the five nuclear powers (U.S., Russia, Britain, France, and China), only Japan has space-launch vehicles capable of potential intercontinental ranges. India's PSLV and GSLV programs have not yet evidenced an operational capability. Similarly, Brazil's VLS/Sonda program appears to be indefinitely delayed and may have been abandoned. None of the countries with an advanced technical base is hostile to the U.S., notwithstanding disputes with China over its threats to Taiwan and alleged violation of agreements to restrict military sales to countries that are hostile to the U.S.
Although, it is possible for the political atmosphere in a particular nation to change, the Third World countries that currently motivate a concern about missile capabilities are those that Senator John McCain has termed "states that threaten world peace:" Iraq, Iran, Cuba, North Korea, Syria, Libya, and Afghanistan. McCain's indictment is an obvious gross exaggeration with respect to Cuba and Afghanistan, but these two "threats to world peace" are included for completeness.
These seven "rogue" states are on the low end of the technology spectrum and are therefore unlikely to produce indigenously a long-range WMD threat to the U.S. in the near term, 10 years, say. Of the seven, only three, Iran, Libya, and North Korea appear to have either the technical or economic resources to develop or acquire longer-range missiles in the next 10-15 years. The three currently have only short-range missiles, which pose no threat to U.S. territory.
With few exceptions, the missiles possessed by developing countries are short range, and very inaccurate. The motivation for most developing countries to obtain missiles results from regional tensions and the possibility of regional conflicts. Their interest, therefore, is in acquiring short-range missiles, not ICBMs. For example, the Scud missile, which was widely distributed by the Soviet Union and provides the missile capability of most of the missile states in the Third World, has a range of only about 300 km.
fas.org |
