william i wanted to respond to this post of yours last night but i was busy sparring with thomas and, between rounds, drinking champagne.
i believe you have several good sources to assume $40.5+ billion in dram sales year 2001. i know where you got the "rdram will get 50% of that" figure. i can accept the 39% margin figure, but afterall the rambus cfo said 40%. then i get a little lost. let's use the highly refined cowen figure of 1.7 % average royalties released last week.
rounding off, 50% of $40 billion = $20billion X 1.7% = $340,000,000.
using the rambus cfo's figure of 40% margin that is $136,000,000 in earnings for rdram 2001 royalties. the rambus ceo has stated that rdram royalties will account for only 50% of earnings, so i get $272,000,000.00 in year 2001 earnings. assuming management bonuses i believe you are quite accurate with your 25,000,000 shares in 2001 projection. that means YEAR 2001 EARNINGS SHOULD BE NORTH OF $10.00 |
