here's my newsletter from 2 weeks ago...they will stayed delayed...subscribers are #1...
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JERRY OLSON'S
"POINT" OF VIEW NEWSLETTER
DATED 23 MARCH 2003
FUNDAMENTALS VS. THE WAR
Hello everyone, we have casualties beginning to mount here as we move thru this terrible War. I think as we get closer to Baghdad things will get even a lot tougher for our guys and gals...We are all thinking about them each and everyday. We wish them a quick victory and a quick return home...
Ok here's what's going on right now...Ahead of this War actually starting, the markets were in a hard retreat. There was a lot of uncertainty in the world and the street will not tolerate this type of scenario...So they began to discount those stocks and indexes till they became severely oversold..We nearly tested the Oct lows by 20 points on the Spooos and SPX... a couple of Weds ago...
At the same time as we bottomed(unreal coincidence), we hear, and now know that the War will start ASAP during that weekend. So it happened at the very same moment, the bottom and the War...Then we exploded up as a relief rally type event and said "screw" the fundamentals, the economic conditions that are weakening everywhere, and the mere fact of what this War will mean to our fragile economy on down the road...We have NO clue as to when this War will end and at what costs of human life, and at what cost to the American taxpayer...So we wait and watch.
As for the markets, the indicators, the indexes etc, let's explore some dramatic changes in these P&F indicators...
Last week we finally got our first really good news reversal in a P&F indicator the BP OPTI. Very very important here everyone. What this indicator does is track all the stocks in both the OTC and NYSE that are optionable... When it reverses up it takes a full 6% of "all" those type stocks to move higher on their charts..This is bullish everyone..Usually this is a precursor of the reversals of the NYSE and OTC..Now that would be great... At the same time I have the NYSE HI LO reversing up and the OTC is just .10% away. The Percent of 10 indicator has really been flying up too...The NYSE BP is about 1% from a large reversal back up, and that would be extremely positive. The OTC BP is 4% away..So it looks like we are looking better right here..
If we get this much anticipated pullback this week, let's see if the "buy the dippers" show up...You and I will in that crowd. I want to see this excessive rally up here correct...I am suggesting you do not chase here..all stocks that have run up this hard & this fast "will" correct..I just think it won't be at 50%, maybe we'll see those 38.2% Fibo's out there..Everyone check the charts of your favorite stocks and set those fibo lines...
I wanted to give you a list of Sectors that I favor for long term plays if we can get this correction and then a reversal back up...We are still news driven and anything can happen...
SEMICONDUCTORS
DRUGS
INTERNET
MEDIA
WALL STREET
WHAT I WILL DO DURING THIS PULLBACK IS DIG UP 4-5 STOCKS IN EACH SECTOR FOR YOU TO CHECK OUT AND MAYBE BUY WITH A LONGER TERM MIND SET...WE WILL ALWAYS SCALP AND DAYTRADE AS THAT'S OUR BREAD AND BUTTER..BUT YOU MAY TAKE A PORTION OF YOUR SIDELINE CASH AND BEGIN TO LEG IN HERE AS WE ROLL UP..
THERE ARE ETF'S "EXCHANGE TRADED FUNDS" FOR ALL OF THE ABOVE...FOR THE SEMIS WE KNOW IT'S THE SMH, FOR THE DRUGS THE PPH AND SO ON...PLEASE CHECK THESE OUT AT www.ishares.com...This could be a great way to play 1-2 of these on the long side with a nice lot size, instead of trying to cherry pick a certain stock..You can always write Covered Calls on these, use stop loss orders as we move higher, you can sell them and short them too...They move slower than stocks and they're a great way to practice your trading..Try the SMH, like the QQQ's and the BBH's..Btw the DOW diamonds(DIA's) are an ETF...SPY as well...all tradable and safer...
Now before we attack the indexes and our stocks, I wanted to say this market has rallied up on this war without a single thought about the basics...We have end of quarter window dressing this week coming up, always a bit volatile.. Then warnings season starts and then earnings..Usually we rally up ahead of earnings and then sell the news...We shall see what the street brings us as the war continues forward...good luck to us all...
OK LET'S DO THE INDEXES...MAJOR MOVES IN THEM ALL, AND HEAVILY OVERBOUGHT HERE, I MEAN STRAIGHT UP.
DJIA---VERY OVERBOUGHT BUT NICELY THRU THE BEARISH RESISTANCE LINE(BRL) ALWAYS TOUGH O/H R HERE...IT'S UP 21 BOXES WITHOUT 1 REVERSAL BACK DOWN( EACH BOX IS 50 POINTS)..A REVERSAL FOLKS IS A 3 BOX MOVE ONE WAY OR THE OTHER..LIKE IN 150 POINTS...8350 IS THAT NUMBER. I WOULD THINK EXCELLENT SUPPORT(S) IS AT 8150 AREA RIGHT AT THE 200 EMA DCC CHART...THE CCI OSCILLATOR IS VERY HIGH AT +221...CORRECTION IS DUE NOW...
COMPX---HUGH B/O AT 1360 AS I NOTED WEEKS AGO AS THE TARGET FOR THAT MOVE UP. WE HIT MY NUMBER AT 1420 RIGHT ON THE MONEY. LOOK FOR A NORMAL PULLBACK(PB) TO 1370 AREA, IF THAT BREAKS THEN 1350/60 THE RECENT BREAKOUT(B/O).
SOX---BEAUTIFUL RUN OFF THE LOWS THRU THE BRL LINE AND VERY EXTENDED...TOUCHING THE 200 EMA DCC, AND MADE A LOWER HIGH ON THE CCI AS IT RAN HIGHER,, A NEGATIVE DIVERGENCE,,I WILL SELL THE SMH ON MONDAY. THE 20 EMA IS AT 305/310 AREA THAT SHOULD BE A GOOD PB.
NDX..THE EXACT SAME DIVERGENCE IN THE CCI LOWER TOP AT A HIGHER NUMBER. IT BROKE OUT AT MY TARGET NUMBER AT 1030 AND EXPLODED. WE ARE NEAR A SHORT TERM TOP AT 1100., 1040 WOULD BE A SOLID RETRACE DOWN TO BUY, "IF" WE GET THERE. IF WE MOVE LOWER AND DO NOT GET THERE AND REVERSE BACK UP HARD THEN THE MARKETS ARE EVEN MORE BULLISH...
BKX---VERY OVERBOUGHT AS IS ALMOST EVERY INDEX. IT RAN FROM 665 TO 750 FOLKS... LOOK FOR 725 AS THE PB AREA...765 IS VERY TOUGH R, AT THE BRL LINE AND THE 200 EMA DCC..
BTK---RALLIED UP OF THE LOWS AT 310 AND TOUCHED 350 A NICE RUN FOR THIS LAGGING INDEX. IT'S OVERBOUGHT<G>..SO WHAT ISN'T...WE'LL SEE IF 330 THE 20 & 40 EMA'S DCC CHART CAN HOLD...
BBH---THIS MOVE DOWN COMING NOW TOWARD THE 90/91 AREA WOULD BE AN EXCELLENT BUYING AREA IF IT GETS THERE...I HAVE IT RUNNING TO 100...
SMH---I AM LONG AND WILL SELL EARLY...OR ON A BOUNCE. IT'S AT A DT AT 26 AND THE 200 EMA DCC... 23 IS THE 3BXRVDN AND GOOD ENTRY THERE...WATCH IT FOLKS...
SPX---UP 21 STRAIGHT BOXES AND IS DIABOLICALLY OVERBOUGHT HERE. A SOLID PB WOULD BE AT 850/860- AREA ABOUT 1/3 RETRACE DOWN..LET'S WATCH THIS POWERFUL INDEX...THE CCI IS AT THE TOP & VERY O/B...
VIX---BROKE DOWN LAST WEEK AS CALLED AND EXPECTED AT 33..IT RAN RIGHT THRU THE BSL LINE...THE BULLISH SUPPORT LINE...36 IS THE 3 BXRVUP...38 THE DT AND O/H R THERE...27 WHEN IT BREAKS IS DYNAMICALLY BULLISH FOR THE MARKETS...
VXN---AT THE BSL LINE HERE 46. 49 3BXRVUP. 50 IS THE DT---51 IS A BREAKOUT...44 IS GOOD FOR THE MARKETS..SAME SCENARIO FOR WEEKS...
SPM3--SPOOOS---I HAVE OPENED AN ACCOUNT WITH IB BROKERS..ALTHOUGH MY PASSWORD GOT SCREWED UP..I AM FUNDING IT ON TUES ONCE THEY GET IT SQUARED AWAY..I'LL NEED HELP ON THE PLATFORM FOR TRADING...PROBABLY USE THE YM'S TO BEGIN WITH..BUT MAYBE THE ES...880 THE 3BXRVDN I WOULD CONSIDER 873 AS THE NEAR TERM SUPPORT AREA..IF WE BREAK THAT THEN 850 IS NEXT. RIGHT AT THE MIDDLE OF THE 10 WEEK TRADING BAND...WE ARE VERY OVERBOUGHT...
GOLD/JUNE FUTURES---GCJ3---LOOKS LIKE ANY RALLY UP IS A SHORT..SAY 344 AREA...MY DOWNSIDE TARGET IS STILL 314/316..WEAK CHART HERE...
DXM3--THE DOLLAR FUTURES-JUNE....VERY POWERFUL BREAKOUT AND HEADING TO 103.60/104 AREA..THE ERUO HAS REVERSED DOWN AS THE HEDGE..I CALLED IT 2 WEEKS AGO ALONG WITH THE OIL COLLAPSE...
SO WHAT WE HAVE HERE IS THE SHORT TERM LEVELS OF ALL INDEXS ARE AT VERY OVERBOUGHT LEVELS AND DUE FOR A NICE BREATHER...WHAT WE NEED TO WITNESS IS WHERE IT STOPS AND BUYERS STEP UP TO THE PLATE..AGAIN I REMIND YOU THIS IS END OF QUARTER WINDOW DRESSING AHEAD OF WARNINGS SEASON...
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HERE'S OUR WATCH LIST FOR THE WEEK...PLEASE TRADE WITH A PLAN OF EXIT AND ENTRIES HERE..USE STOPS AT ALL COST..NEVER BE WITHOUT THEM..IT'S SUICIDE...ANYTHING CAN HAPPEN IN THIS WAR TO EXPLODE THIS MARKET UP OR DOWN..REMEMBER THAT, WE ARE NOT IN USUAL TIMES FOLKS..STAY ALERT, FOCUS AND THINK...1 STOCK 1 TRADE AT A TIME...CAPTURE YOUR DAYS PAY EARLY WITH THE LEAST AMOUNT OF SHARES TRADED PER TRADE AND THE LEAST AMOUNT OF DAY TRADES TOO...
AMGN---AT THE TOP OF THE 10 WEEK HERE AND 100% OVERBOUGHT...59.10 THE BTL---57.95 THE SST 56 THE NORMAL 3BXRVDN...I LIKE IT SHORT...
AMZN---FABULOUS CHART FOLKS WITH THE BP INET LOOKING GREAT..BUT..IT'S AT THE TOP OF THE 10 WEEK AND 100% OVERBOUGHT...28.45 THE BTL---27.45 THE SST---
CCMP---RIGHT AT THE 200 EMA DCC(DAILY CANDLE CHART)...CCI OVERBOUGHT...GAVE A DT BUY SIGNAL LAST WEEK AND IS IN A GOOD SECTOR..CHEMICALS...BUY THE PB...48.95 THYE BTL---47.85 THE SST--
CYMI---VERY WEAK CHART HERE IMO(IN MY OPINION)...SHOULD MOVE LOWER ON THIS CORRECTION...28.25 THE BTL--27.25 THE SST--- I'LL TAKE THAT SHORT...
EBAY---DYNAMICALLY OVERBOUGHT AND WAY ABOVE THE 10 WEEK TOO..110% OVERSOLD<G>MAJOR DIVERGENCE IN THE CCI DCC CHART...MAJOR...90.40 THE BTL---89.20 THE SST---
ERTS---DIRECTLY AT THE BRL LINE... ALWAYS TOUGH R THERE FOLKS...59.75 THE BTL---58.65 THE SST...56 THE 3BXRVDN...
GNSS---ANOTHER WEAK CHART AND DID NOT PARTICIPATE IN THIS BALLISTIC RALLY...THERE'S A DOJI WITH A LOWER HANGING MAN ON THE DCC CHART...13.35 THE BTL---12.40 THE SST..I LIKE IT SHORT 10.50 THE TARGET...
IDPH---BROKE A DESCENDING WEDGE ON THE DCC AND GAVE A LOW POLE WARNING TO THE SHORTS..MEANING IT'S BULLISH RATHER THAN BEARISH ANYMORE...34.85 THE BTL----33.85 THE SST---37 IS THE DT AND R THERE...
IMCL---BEARISH ENGULFING ON FRIDAY AND A LOT OF SELLING THE LAST 15 MINUTES...DUE FOR A PULLBACK, "BUT" IT'S IN PLAY SO BE CAREFUL...16.75 THE BTL---15.80 THE SST---ALREADY REVERSED DOWN 3 BOXES...
MSFT---HAS HELD SOLID SUPPORT AT THE BSL...REVERSED UP 3BXES...LOOKS LIKE THE CCI IS ROLLING OVER HERE...27.05 THE BTL---26 THE SST---
NVLS---LOWER HIGHS HERE SO FAR..NEEDS A TON MORE TO GET ME BULLISH...31.45 THE BTL---30.20 THE SST---
EXPE---UNREAL MOVE OFF THAT BUY OUT NEWS FROM USAI...VERY OVERBOUGHT IS AN UNDERSTATEMENT...+270 CCI DCC LAST 2 DAYS LOWER VOLUME..LOOKOUT HERE...USE STOPS IF YOU DARE<VBG> 54.65 THE BTL---53.50 THE SST...GOOD LUCK...
KLAC---RIGHT AT THE BRL LINE HERE...SO R THERE...40.55 THE BTL---39.35 THE SST...LOOK LIKE A GOOD SHORT IF WE BEGIN TO CORRECT...
MERQ---IN A TRIANGLE ON P&F CHARTS...34.05 THE BTL---33.00 THE SST---I'LL TAKE IT SHORT...
MXIM---HIT THE BSL LINE AT GOOD S.. AND RALLIED UP TO BREAK A DT AT 40...FROM THE LOWS AT 29..NICE RUN...VERY OVERBOUGHT WITH A MAJOR DIVERGENCE IN THE CCI...41.05 THE BTL---39.85 THE SST...
PSFT---THIS STOCK BROKE A TRIPLE BOTTOM AT 17 TOUCHED 15.50 THEN RALLIED UP TO 18.50 AND NOW HAS REVERSED BACK DOWN...I LIKE IT SHORT...17.25 THE BTL---16.25 THE SST---IF IT BREAK 15 IT HEADS TO 12.50...
MO---BAD RULING FOR THE TOBACCO'S...IT BROKE DOWN AT 35 AND GUESS WHAT HERE IT IS RIGHT AT R...IT'S ON A BACKSIDE BOUNCE UP AND INTO O/H R AT THE 20 EMA...35.40 THE BTL---34.40 THE SST..I LIKE IT SHORT...
ELX---SIDEWAYS FLAG FORMATION WHICH IS BULLISH..BUT IT'S GOING TO CORRECT ALONG WITH THE MARKETS..LET'S WATCH AND SEE WHERE IT STOPS AND REVERSES...21.70 THE BTL---20.65 THE SST...
IBM---INCREDIBLE BULLISH DCC CHART...BROKE A SPREAD TRIPLE TOP ON P&F TOO...NICE...BUY ANY MEANINGFUL PB...85.50 THE BTL---84.10 THE SST...
OVTI---FABULOUS CHART FOLKS..I DID ALERT YOU TO THIS STOCK WEEKS AGO...BROKE A WILD SPREAD QUAD TOP AT 20 ON A BULLISH CATAPULT FORMATION...OVERBOUGHT HERE...24.05 THE BTL---23 THE SST...
I WANT EVERYONE TO BE CAREFUL HERE...WHILE I FULLY EXPECT A CORRECTION OF THIS EUPHORIC RALLY..I DO NOT KNOW WHEN OR WHERE BUYERS WILL STEP BACK UP TO THE PLATE..THAT FOR ME WILL BE THE "TELL" FOR THE FUTURE BASED ON THC NEXT BEST MOVE UP...I LOVE THE FACT THE BULLISH PERCENTS ON P&F ARE REGAINING THEIR FOOTINGS...THIS IS VERY POSITIVE GOING FORWARD..AND ESPECIALLY WITH THE BP OPTI REVERSING UP...SO WE WATCH WE TRADE, WE STAY ALERT..THIS IS STILL A NEWS DRIVEN DAY TO DAY MARKET...STAY THE COURSE AND BE AWARE OF WHAT'S GOING ON THROUGHOUT THE DAY..GOOD LUCK TO US ALL...
THE PASSWORD FOR THIS WEEK IS.....warfactor.......one word..lower case...
SEE YOU ALL IN THE ROOM..I HAVE AN APPT WITH IRS TOMORROW, AND A 1.30 WITH SOCIAL SECURITY ON TUES OTHER THAN THAT I'M ALL YOURS...
WARMEST REGARDS
JERRY |
