Well, if I wanted a sure thing I would buy a coffin.
Although I thought the market was already too high when the Dow hit 6000, I did not do any shorting because of what turned out to be a justifiable fear that insanity could go further. A year ago, in a move that turns out not to have been a good idea, I "protected profits" in some long-held blue chips with shorts against the box. Happily I have not lost anything except the dividends and a few hundred dollars in margin interest, and I hope to see this position eventually redeem itself. Next I tried a put on the S&P that expired worthless. Next I bought some BEARX. Next I shorted some SPY (which is about even). And finally I tripled my BEARX holdings. So I have edged in gradually, by stages, over a year, to the short side.
Every authority and every measure that I respect says that the market is terribly overpriced. I still do not dare mess around with uncovered shorts of individual stocks and I've decided options are not for me.
So here I am! Que sera, sera--or, in Italian, I think che sera sera. Doing the best I can according to my lights. I have a fully funded pension plan and other investments beyond this, so I am OK whatever happens. If all I had was my investments I think I would be in cash. I guess I like the adventure of trying to understand what's going on in the world and get it to work for me. |
