Has anyone seen any recent reports on world PC demand for 2000?
From nikkeibp.asiabiztech.com
"In 1999, 140 million PCs with x86 processors were sold worldwide, and AMD was responsible for producing 18 million, or 13 percent, of those chips. This year, out of an expected 160 million x86 PCs to be sold around the world, AMD will likely supply 25 million of them with its processors, giving the company a market share of around 16 percent."
At the same time, bloomberg.com
"Analysts said Intel Corp., the world's largest manufacturer
of semiconductor chips for computers, may boost capital spending this year by as much as 40 percent to $7 billion, to raise production to meet demand. Intel, expected to be the industry's top spender this year, has said it will spend $5 billion, up from $3.4 billion last year. The biggest component of capital spending for the chipmaker is manufacturing and testing equipment."
Now, of course, that is not all for PCs, but slightly more than 10% worldwide growth for x86 PCs seems too low given the boom in semiconductor capital equipment expenditures. I wonder how much AMD's 25 million production projection is based upon what it believed it could produce and sell (e.g., a goal based on marketing considerations) verse how much it could produce. If based upon 1Q 2000 sales worldwide PC growth for 2000 should exceed 20%, and AMD has the capacity, AMD undoubtedly will be revising its 25 million chip goal. Whatever is the case, it doesn't look like we'll have a price war between Intel and AMD this year. AMD's ASP should increase as the year progresses. |
