Iran and the Oil Weapon
Austin Bay
An Iranian government spokesman warned of an oil crisis if the US and Europe push for UN sanctions because of Iran’s nuclear program. The Persian Journal website speculated that Iran was considering closing the Straits of Hormuz. The Straits of Hormuz connect the Persian Gulf to the Indian Ocean.
The Strait is a bottleneck for oil tankers. From 35% to 40% of the world’s crude oil shipments passes through Hormuz. In 1988 Joe Balkoski and I collaborated on a wargame titled “Light Division: The Straits of Hormuz.” 3W (World Wide Wargaming) published the game, and it is now out of print.
The game is still a useful tool for considering US, Western, and for that matter, Arab and Eastern (Japanese?) military options if Iran closes the Straits. Yes, you could see a Coalition of the Industrialized form quite quickly if Iran tries to close the Straits of Hormuz using mines, anti-ship missiles, artillery, or any suite of weapons.
I don’t think Iran will try it– such talk is huff and bluff.
But geography can be tantalizing and sometimes fanatics move from words to war. Perhaps a few of Tehran’s more belligerent mullahs believe the US is spread thin by Iraq and can’t handle closure of the Straits. These men are wrong. The US Navy isn’t tied down in Iraq. Supported by naval and air forces, a Marine brigade and an Army airborne brigade can take Hormuz.
Moreover, risk-taking Iranian mullahs fascinated by the Hormuz Option had better poll of their own military commanders and get an honest assessment of morale. Revolutionary Guards attacking US forces will have a very short life expectancy – and that will leave fewer thugs to oppress the populace in Tehran. The Iranian people know what’s going on in the world, and the big story (one even the NY Times now appreciates) is the freedom’s surge in the Middle East. Put US troops in Hormuz and presto, Free Iran has a toehold.
Threatening to choke the world’s oil pipeline is one thing– the threat begets headlines, spikes oil prices, expresses a certain degree of macho bravado, why, it might even appeal to that narrow spectrum of humanity that hates SUVs more than dictators. But actually carrying out this threat is foolish politics. For the Iranian mullahs it amounts to tying their own nooses. The Straits won’t choke– they will. |
