par shooter,
I hope the initial response of the group hasn't scared you
off. If you've read past postings, the group has
constantly been "invaded" by new people who try to hype
Panda, usually very lamely. We tend to be hard on new
posters for that reason. Up to a limit, I like to hear
what the hypsters have to say, since it gives insight into
what Panda and IIRG are telling other (non-net) investors, but
it usually gets old very quickly.
The hypters usually have no real information in their profile
(click on a name, it will take you to the profile), and come
and go quickly. Many times they only sign up to post Panda related
material. Take a look at JAGUAR, he signed on Mar 10, 1998, and
every post has been on Panda. You initially fit the profile
(new and all of your posts were on Panda) so you got jumped on.
(By the way, it's fairly easy to add information to your profile.)
I hope I've been clear on what I think the future of Compass
and VSPA are (and this is based on a lot of research). Compass
is never going to make it, it's not really better than alternatives
(this according to many people, but in particular people at
AMP - a nominal licensee - feel they have much better connectors.)
After 2+ years of "shipping" there still is no volume. Notice
the clever wording of the recent press release - LG Cable has
a production *capacity* of 250K units/months, which is completely
different than that they are shipping 250K units.
VSPA is somewhat interesting as a low-cost alternative to BGA.
Unfortunately, BGA has a long head-start, and is already fairly
far down the cost/learning curve. This makes it hard for VSPA
to gain customers, both because the advantages are not that
significant, and the risks are large in being the first customer -
especially given Panda's history. Finally, the VSPA has to be
low cost to make any sense, and thus the profits will never be
that great even if VSPA did take off.
If Panda was concentrating
on VSPA it might have a chance, but Rock City, Archistrat and
Compass eat so much cash that VSPA will never have a chance. Of
course the problem is VSPA can't justify a big stock
valuation, so Stanford continues to pursue the "big ideas".
Mike |
