Alan update and continuation from last post.
" The transplant went as well as could be expected. The lungs were nearly a perfect match. He was off his respirator within 24 hrs. but
ran into problems on Monday. He was put back on the respirator and is reasonably ok. He was able to talk a little and understood everything. I will get his messages to him and check in for new ones. If things go well Al will be back in 3 or 4 weeks. Thank you for your concern." This was an e mail from Al's brother today.
Foreign investors who want to join the bull market and our bonds have to convert their currencies to dollars. This is one of the factors that pushed the dollar sharply higher today, past the 100 level for the Mar. dollar index. The D Mark fell to it's lowest level since last August, the Yen to it's lowest level in over 5 years. Given the demand that we are seeing for our treasuries, especially out of Asia,
the uncertainty surrounding the EMU, and the relative strength of our economy when compared to the rest of the world, look for dollar gains. Dollar index up 97 pts to 101.01, major currencies declined.
The stock market started on a positive note, then traders focused on what went on in Asia last night. Hong Kong was down 3.5%, Nikkei down below 15,000. That is going to continue to put a drag on the stock market. Technical indicators turned up last week. The market was as low as the 7912 area and came back 50-60 pts from the lows. The S&P should head towards the 999.50 area, which was the previous high. That may be the fifth wave in the stock market. In the short term stocks should not be as strong as bonds. S&P up 2.2 at 986.90. Short term bias to the upside, we could make one more new high. But we have to be cautious - it could be a divergence high, meaning that the market goes to new highs but the technical indicators do not. That would be a big caution flag .
No indication that we are anywhere near a bottom in the crude oil market. "The trend is your friend." OPEC is producing at the highest level in over 5 years, this is the seasonal time when the markets move lower, warm weather in the mid west and east has been depressing demand for heating oil. Prices gapped lower this morning leaving another barrier of strong resistance. Any rallies are viewed as selling opportunities. Crude down 54 cents per barrel at $16.89.
heating oil down 1.49 at .4792. |
