Your buddies at Vodafone plus GPRS down the tubes?
Forget 2.5G, 3G, it's 802.11 stupid
Doubts about GPRS, but WLANs could be the future
By Chris Nuttall, FTMarketWatch.com 5:06:00 PM BST Sep 3, 2001
LONDON (FTMW) - No amount of name-changing is going to cover up the disarray in the mobile sector.
BT [UK:BTA] obviously hopes to make a fresh start in 2002 with its new name for BT Wireless, mm02 (mm is Roman numerals for 2000). But the future is not bright, nor Orange, according to the latest analyst predictions.
Morgan Stanley Dean Witter issued a Mobile Stocks Downgrade Warning last Friday, cutting its recommendations across the European sector with reduced ratings for Vodafone [UK:VOD], Orange [UK:OGE] , Telefonica Moviles [DE:589401] and Telecom Italia Mobile [US:TIMIF]. See Ratings Watch
MSDW said that it was concerned that "GPRS will not prove the key enabling technology as expected." GPRS (General Packet Radio Service), also known as 2.5G, is seen by operators as an interim data service that will bridge the gap before 3G networks come on stream offering rich multimedia experiences on mobile devices.
The question is: if GPRS is not a key mobile technology, what is the alternative?
On the LAN
The answer suggested by telecoms research firm Analysys in its latest report could be even more discomforting for hapless network operators.
"Public Wireless LAN Access: A Threat to Mobile Operators?" warns WLANs are rapidly spreading as an alternative to the use of cellular networks for data applications.
The dominant standard, despite a challenge from Bluetooth, is the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE) 802.11b, also known as WiFi, offering speeds in excess of 10 megabits per second over radio spectrum (2.4GHz and 5GHz) that can be used without licences. 3G speeds should reach just 1 megabit/sec.
"The 802.11 standard may realise the promise of mobile broadband connections that 3G will be slow to fulfil," the report says.
Hotspot access
When you consider that many people only look to access data services, when they come off a train, or a motorway or pop into a coffee shop, the need for a roaming high-speed mobile capability is less apparent.
Wireless LANs are being set up in airports, hotels, shopping malls and Starbucks [US:SBUX], wherever there are "hotspots" of users.
But Analysys sees the independent WLAN operators facing an unequal contest if mobile operators try to muscle in on the action, with consumers preferring providers that can supply both static and on-the-move wireless access.
Son of Napster
There is another Napster-style nightmare scenario for the Vodafones [US:VOD] of this world though - parasitic P2P (peer-to-peer) networks.
These would consist of individuals setting up their own WLANs to share their capacity with the public and linking up as chains of users in the ad hoc construction of wireless networks.
Overall, Analysys sees WLANs as more opportunity than threat to mobile operators, offering "a cheap and technologically feasible solution in a shorter period" compared to the delayed 3G and the limited spectrum available to 2.5G.
Cheer up then, Mr Gent. You just have to chance your arm on yet another technology, find a whole set of new locations for the transmitters and sit back and hope that some combination of 2.5G, 3G and wireless LANs will make this multimedia mobile adventure all seem worthwhile.
ftmarketwatch.com{9F6C250C-721E-454B-B393-0371E61D107C} |
