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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices
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To: milan0 who wrote (103543)4/11/2000 3:41:00 AM
From: Petz   of 1570498
 
Michel, just read your post about AMD market share in the business and retail sectors
and the difficulty of selling 6M Athlons in Q4. Near the bottom you have this chart for Q1:

Sector AMD K6 Athlon
Business 5% 0.8 0.76
Retail 60% 4.1 0.46
4.9 1.22
* units in millions if % not indicated

This would seem to fit the data for Q1 pretty well, if Athlon sales really come
in at only 1.22 million. But I think some of your numbers are off. Specifically,
AMD doesn't have 60% of retail market, its more like 50%. Secondly, more of the systems
sold in the retail market are Athlons than you give credit for.

(2) The retail consumers buy mostly low end systems : 90%
Celeron and K6s vs
only 10% Pentium III and Athlons.

If you listen to the Gateway ads, well, they don't even sell K6 systems. The ads from the
screwdriver shops are mostly for Athlons, look at my last survey.

You said: My maths show that AMD could hardly sell more than 1.2 M Athlons
unless it had more than 5% business market share. What does this imply if AMD is
to sell 6 M Athlons in Q4? Any comments?

First, at least some of these will be the low end "Spitfire" chips replacing the K6 chips.
The high end Athlons can continue to grow 50% per quarter, meaning we could be selling
4M Spitfires plus 4M TBirds by Q4. AMD will have at least 10% of business sales by
then.

Petz
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