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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis

SOXX 309.40

+1.0%

Dec 5 4:00 PM EST

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To: Alastair McIntosh who wrote (10368)	6/30/2003 10:39:25 AM
From: The Ox	of 95530

Thanks AM, I agree with the point at the end of this bullet: • 1st Leg Still Rolling Over. Worldwide semiconductor revenue increased 2.0% sequentially (in-line with 25-year historical average of +1.8%) on a 3-month moving average basis (3MMA) and increased 7.4% on a single-month basis in May. The 3MMA Y/Y growth rate peaked in December at +23.1%, then decelerated each month to 9.9% in May as the cyclical recovery loses steam. Unit growth (3MMA) also decelerated on a Y/Y basis, from 26.9% (Sept ’02) to 3.6% in May. Unit deceleration was steeper than revenues, which were aided by the second consecutive month of positive y/y ASP trend (however, comparisons getting tougher in July). The market is anticipating a second leg of growth, though we remain concerned about its timing and strength given the current end-demand forecasts and the tough semi environment.

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