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Technology Stocks : Dell Technologies Inc.

DELL 133.35

+0.1%

Nov 28 9:30 AM EST

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To: Michael Bakunin who wrote (103969)	2/22/1999 7:17:00 PM
From: Chuzzlewit	Read Replies (3) of 176387

Michael, I wasn't disputing that Q4 (January) quarter is quite strong. Simply that looking at q/q data provides an unambiguous view of the seasonality, and that you cannot see that with y/y data. The way you build the model is to first transform by taking the log of the revenue. Use dummy variables for the quarters and use time for the independent variables. Alternatively, you could just plot the revenue data on semilog paper and eyeball a line through the data. The seasonally strong periods (Q3 and Q4) will be above the line, and seasonally weak point will be below. The easy way to do this is to use color pencils to represent the point (say green for Q1 and Q2 and red for Q3 and Q4). You could also do exponential smoothing models. The major point is not so much to demonstrate seasonality (which ought to be quite obvious), but the much greater seasonality of the industry (for example CPQ and GTW) compared to Dell. TTFN, CTC

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