My newsletter from 2 weeks ago, we are still running up here, overbought can continue along for a while...so just trade it like you see it...
===========================================================
JERRY OLSON'S
"POINT" OF VIEW NEWSLETTER
DATED APRIL 13TH 2003
"THE LINES IN THE SAND"
Happy Sunday everyone...
Gee I'm watching CNN and they found all 7 POW's safe and sound, that is fantastic for them and their families..outstanding really for us all<VBG>...
As I wrote the title to this newsletter I was thinking how it sounded to me...It reminded me of those soap operas on T.V. the Days of Our Lives, As the World Turns, the Lines in the Sands..hahahahahaha..Well let me tell you folks, that's exactly what this market is, a soap opera being played out on the stage of life...Each and every day, in all ways we follow the whims and wishes of the big boys. Either they're scared to death all the time, or their so blasé they become complacent and then get killed because of a lack of caring one way or the other. Incredible thinkers there on Wall(Fall) Street...Barrons excluded of course<VBG>....
Anyway having said that, we are at another crossroads...Another critical juncture of life in the markets. This is options expiration week..always tenuous, always volatile, always tradable...I think I can set everyone up easily based on my chart reads, that "IF" this or that happens this week, "THEN" we'll do this or that...it's called the IF-THEN Scenario...
So IF we break down below my numbers I post here for all the indexes then we are going to probably test the March 12th lows quickly..If we reverse up and move toward the top of this current trend I think we'll bust out to the surprise of all those who are leaning short...as you know I like it long, but as a trader, I will be nimble enough to change course ASAP...And so will you all...we do not step in front of a train...never..we do not think we are stronger, better or smarter than the big guys controlling this market..we play caboose..we follow merrily along which ever way they want to take us...I love not having to speculate, why guess?..it's such a BIGFOOT PRINT they leave, so let's be smart and trade the right direction..
Nothing has changed in the overall P&F indicators yet...the 3 main coaches are in X's and at very solid field position below 50%...Some of the shorter term indicators are getting up there and could reverse down bringing some selling in here..but folks they have not reversed yet...nothing has changed despite everyone saying the opposite..I'll stick to my game plan...Sure the markets are scared and tenuous..We are right at the brink on the NDX the SOX and other indexes..But everyone we are ALWAYS at the BRINK..we are always testing support, always selling off at heavy resistance areas till we break them up or down one way or the other...Heck last week we touched to 200 day moving average of the SPX 3 times and sellers were there each time...Will they be there the next time? who knows..only the shadow does<G>...
Ok, so what do you do you're asking me? What the heck do I know<GGGGGGGGGGGGGG> only kidding folks...I think what we'll do is trade exactly like we have been...legging into stocks using stops on the long side..waiting for solid pullbacks and then taking positions...if you get stopped out at a 7-8% loss, then so be it..if your stock selection works out correctly and it begins to move higher, then you're going to a breakeven stop ASAP..and then sit chilly...This week is the major start of earnings by the big cap techs. We'll reserve judgment till they report. I already know the numbers for last Q will be soft, and probably will be this Q as well. There is no current visibility going forward yet... There will be soon..I think the consumer is going to get back into the game, and so will our corps begin to spend..The uncertainty of the War is done, now it's back to BIZ, and back to focusing on the future not the past. Spending will accelerate, and that will ignite the whole market...As bad as it looks right now, that's how it will change going forward..
What I am talking about is this. When things in general get skewed to one side or the other, expect a bounce. So we see the Consumer Confidence # was at 10 year lows, Retail sales were terrible 2 months ago and bounced nicely and will continue to bounce...Everything always moves back towards the mean..The middle..and that is what happens all the time...So we wait and watch, trading the charts the technical and the sentiment..Pullbacks in the markets are healthy folks..not negative, they are healthy, they take out the excesses in the prices and valuations of bloated stocks. So do not be afraid to pick up selected stocks in good solid sectors on nice pullbacks during major selloffs...That's the way to get RICH...While everyone else is puking their shares out of fear, you/we should be buying them for a discount...Like on sale? My wife is the best at that folks..She taught me a thing or too..Retail? what the hecks that<G> So fear not, continue to trade the plan..if we are not going up then you'll get stopped out and go short!
OK LET'S CHECK ALL THE INDEXES AND INDICATORS...WE ARE CURRENTLY TESTING SUPPORTS ON ALMOST ALL INDEXES HERE..I'LL GIVE YOU THE LINES IN THE SAND FOR BREAKDOWNS..AND NUMBERS TO KEEP THIS RALLY GOING HIGHER...
DJIA---A PICTURE IS WORTH A 1000 WORDS...PICTURE THIS IN YOUR MINDS EYE...ON MARCH 12TH WE HIT THE BOTTOM AT 7450, WE RALLIED UP TO 8500, AND REVERSED DOWN ABOUT 50% TO 7950 AT SUPPORT..THEN RE RALLIED BACK UP TO 8500 AGAIN ONLY TO SELL BACK OFF LAST WEEK TO A LOW OF 8150 MAKING A HIGHER LOW. GOT THAT, HIGHER THAN THE LAST LOW OF 7950. AND NOW WE ARE IN A COLUMN OF X'S AND JIGGLING AROUND FOR NOW...HERE'S THE DEAL. IF THE MARKETS ARE REALLY WEAK HERE THEN THIS 3 BOX REVERSAL BACK UP LAST WEEK WILL FALL VERY QUICKLY THIS WEEK AT AROUND 8100, THAT WOULD BREAK NEAR TERM DOUBLE BOTTOM. WE KNOW 7950 IS GOOD SUPPORT SO IF WE BREAK THAT WE HEAD TO 7650 THE BULLISH SUPPORT LINE...ON THE FLIP SIDE...8500 IS NOW A DOUBLE TOP SO 8550 IS A BREAKOUT OF THAT TOP AS A TRIPLE TOP B/O..VERY POWERFUL AND WOULD TAKE US TO 8850...LOT'S OF IF & THENS HUH???
COMPX---EXACTLY THE SAME SCENARIO AS THE DOW REALLY...LAST WEEK IT BROKE A DOUBLE BOTTOM AT 1370 THE 1ST TARGET IS 1330/40 THAT'S THE MEAN NUMBER I ALWAYS TALK ABOUT THE MIDDLE OF THE 10 WEEK TRADING BAND. A NORMAL PULLBACK(PB)...1390 IS THE NUMBER THAT KEEPS THIS MOVING BACK UP IN A 3 BOX REVERSAL...THE OTC BP IS AT 41.44% AND LOOKS FINE.
SOX---LOOKS A BIT WEAKER HERE AHEAD OF EARNINGS THIS WEEK...MADE A LOWER TOP AT 325 AND NOW SITTING RIGHT AT THE DOUBLE BOTTOM AT 300..OBVIOUSLY A BREAK OF THAT BOTTOM AT 295 IS NEGATIVE. BUT THE BSL LINE IS AT 285/290 SO EXCELLENT SUPPORT THERE...THE ACTUAL BOTTOM OF THE MARCH 12TH LOWS IS AT 260..NOW 315 IS THE 3 BOX REVERSAL BACK UP..AND 335 IS THE DT..BIG WEEK THIS WEEK FOR THE SEMIS...SEMIS BP IS AT 41.80% AND A BIT WEAKER..38% IS A REVERSAL BACK DOWN...
BTK---STILL THE WEAKEST LINK OVERALL... ALREADY BROKE A DOUBLE BOTTOM AT 330. 310/305 IS THE MARCH LOWS..LOOKS LIKE A STEEP DESCENDING WEDGE HERE..WHICH IS BULLISH REALLY. 340 THE 3 BOX REVERSAL BACK UP. HEADSUP HERE..I JUST CHECKED THE BP FOR THE BIO'S IT REVERSED UP LAST WEEK AT 32% TO BULL ALERT...HELLO? I OWN THE BBH AND WILL HOLD ALL THE WAY NOW...
NDX---HELD AN AMAZING DOUBLE BOTTOM AT 1020 A ZILLION TIMES LAST WEEK..THIS INDEX WAS TESTED AND RETESTED..NOW IF YOUR BANGING AGAINST SUPPORT OR RESISTANCE TOO LONG, EITHER IT BREAKS AT 1010 WHICH WOULD BE VERY NEGATIVE, OR IT BOUNCES BACK AT 1050 ASAP...IF WE BREAK 1010 THEN 970 IS THE 1ST TARGET...
SPX---KEY INDEX FOR ME..WE ALL WATCH THIS BIG CAP WEIGHTED INDEX...THE CHART LOOKS FINE TO ME...WE CAME BACK TO THE 50% RETRACE AT 845 AFTER THE BIG EXPLOSION OFF THE BOTTOM...WE DID MAKE A HIGHER LOW HERE AND A HIGHER HIGH BOTH AT 865 THE HIGHER LOW, AND 900 THE HIGHER HIGH...SO I THINK THAT IF WE JIGGLE AROUND BETWEEN 845 AND 900 THIS WOULD BE CONSIDERED MARKET NOISE..IF WE BREAK THE BOTTOM AT 840 THEN THAT'S BAD...IF WE TAKE OUT 900 THEN THATS GOOD...SIMPLE AS THAT...
SPM3---SPOOOS---STILL IN AN UPTREND BUT VERY VOLATILE.,..HIT 880 LAST WEEK AND NOW SITTING AT 868..A BREAK OF 860 IS NEGATIVE, AND OF COURSE 844/45 IS CRITICAL...884 KEEPS IT MOVING UP..
NQM3---KIND OF WEAK TO ME BUT HELD THIS ASSAULT ON THE BOTTOM AREA AT 1020...YOU ALREADY NOW 1010 IS REAL TROUBLE. 1060 KEEPS IT MOVING UP...ANYTHING IN-BETWEEN 1020 AND 1050 IS JIGGLES AND MARKET NOISE...
BOTH THE VIX AND VXN ARE MUCH LOWER HERE...AND MAY REVERSE BACK UP EARLY NEXT WEEK 3 BOXES, BUT IF THEY DO, I THINK THEY COULD GET HIT AS ANOTHER LOWER TOP..WE'LL BE WATCHING AND WAITING...
==============================================================================================
THE LINES IN THE SAND...
DJIA-- A BREAK OF 8100 DOWN
COMPX---A BREAK OF 1330 DOWN
SPX---A BREAK OF 845 DOWN
NDX---A BREAK OF 1010 DOWN
SOX---A BREAK OF 295 DOWN
SET ALERTS AND WATCH CAREFULLY...
===============================================================================================
OK HERE'S THE STOCK TO TRADE THIS WEEK...MANY EARNINGS TRADES SPRINKLED IN HERE..DO NOT HOLD ANY STOCK THRU EPS DATES...
IBM---REPORTS MON AH(AFTER HOURS) HAS PULLED BACK NICELY..HAS EXCELLENT S AT THE BSL LINE AROUND 75...IT'S SITTING RIGHT IN THE MIDDLE HERE AT A DOUBLE BOTTOM AT 79...79.40 THE BTL---78.10 THE SST
NVLS---VERY WEAK CHART HERE MADE 2 CONSECUTIVE LOWER HIGHS. HOWEVER SITTING ON THE BSL LINE FOR S...27.20 THE BTL---26.05 THE SST...REPORTS MON AH
RMBS---SOLID CHART HERE FOLKS..TRYING TO BASE IN A FLAG FORMATION ON THE DAILY CANDLE CHART(DCC)...VERY TIGHT RANGE FOR 2 MONTHS...15.90 THE BTL---14.95 THE SST REPORTS MON AH..
LLTC---REPORTS AH TUES ALONG WITH INTC AND MSFT MOT & TXN..UH OH WHAT A DAY THAT'S GONNA BE..WOO HOO...HIT A DOUBLE TOP AT 35...I LOOKED AT THE WEEKLY CANDLE CHART ON LLTC..IT LOOKS LIKE AN INVERTED HEAD AND SHOULDERS...WITH A HUGH BREAKOUT AT 36...IT COULD BREAKDOWN TOO BELOW 30...31 IS THE BTL---29.90 THE SST...
CDWC---EPS TUES AH...WEAK LOOKING CHART SHOULD BE A GOOD SHORT...TARGET 33, AND MAKING LOWER TOPS AND LOWER LOWS...40.40 THE BTL---39.25 THE SST...EPS AH TUES
BRCM---THE CHART IS PRETTY OVERSOLD HERE..YES IT COULD MOVE LOWER..BUT MAYBE THE RISK REWARD IS PRESENT HERE...13.50 THE BTL---12.55 THE SST..EPS AH WEDS
CREE---I LIKE THIS STOCK..AND THE CHART..I'LL BUY THE PULLBACK TOMORROW JUST BELOW 21 THRU 20...IT'S PULLED BACK TO THE 20 EMA DCC...21.80 THE BTL---20.95 THE SST..EPS AH WEDS...
MERQ---EXCELLENT RELATIVE STRENGTH(RS)...THE CHARTS NOT TOO BAD EITHER..IT REPORTS WED AH...32.45 THE BTL---31.35 THE SST...
IDPH---IN A SIDEWAYS CHART PATTERN HERE ON P&F...EPS WED AH...32.20 THE BTL---31.10 THE SST...34 IS THE 3 BOX REV BACK UP...
LRCX---CHARTS VERY PRECARIOUS AT THIS MOMENT..SITTING AT A HUGH BREAKDOWN BELOW 11.00...EPS WEDS AH...11.50 THE BTL---10.60 THE GREAT SST...TAKE IT...
KLAC---EARNINGS ON THURS AH BUT WILL DEFINITELY BE IMPACTED BY INTC & MSFT AND TXN ON TUES..SYMPATHY PLAY FOR SURE...IT'S IN A REALLY BIG TRIANGLE ON P&F...SO IT'S GOING TO BREAK ONE WAY OR THERE OTHER FOR SURE..A MAKE OR BREAK CHART...37 THE BTL---35.95 THE SST...IF INTC IS BAD WHACK THIS ONE FOR SURE...
XLNX---5 CONSECUTIVE HIGHER HIGHS..REALLY NICE CHART FOLKS...HIT THE TOP OF THE 10 WEEK TRADING BAND(10 WEEK) AND REVERSED DOWN LAST WEEK...24.10 THE BTL---23.10 THE SST---26 THE 3 BOX REVBKUP...
JCOM---I OWN THIS AT 31.50 AND WILL HOLD IT LONG...EARNINGS ARE THE 21ST...FABULOUS DCC CHART AS WELL THE P&F CHART TOO...LOW FLOAT FOLKS BE CAREFUL WITH WILD INTRADAY SWINGS...32.40 THE BTL---31.50 THE SST...
MRK---VERY NICE ORDERLY CHART IN A GOOD SECTOR...SITTING ON EXCELLENT SUPPORT ON THE DCC CHART AT THE 20-40-200 EMAS...NEEDS TO GET UP HERE FOR ME<G>. I OWN IT AT AN AVERAGE OF 56.00 2 LOTS WORTH, IT'S ALREADY HAD A NICE 3 BOX REVERSAL BACK DOWN...EPS PRE MARKET APR 21ST COULD REALLY POP AHEAD OF THOSE NUMBERS..I SAID "COULD"..MARKET WILLING...56.00 THE BTL---54.90 THE SST...
ESRX---A LOT OF CHOP IN THE CHART BUT ABOVE ALL THE MVA'S ON THE DCC CHART...56.00 THE BTL---55.00 THE SST...I OWN IT AT 55.71 AND LOVE THE CHART...
FRX---I AM UNDERWATER IN THIS ONE FOR SURE...NOT EVEN SURE I'LL ADD ANOTHER LOT YET..EPS BEFORE THE BELL APR 24TH...I THINK I'LL WATCH IT THIS WEEK...SITTING AT THE DOUBLE BOTTOM HERE AT 51.00..IF IT BREAKS IT'S GOING TO 45ISH...THAT'S NOT GOOD.. :( 51.50 THE BTL---50.40 THE SST...
QLGC---THIS STOCK WILL MOVE FOR SURE AS THE MARKET MOVES...CHART LOOKS OK TOO...38.55 THE BTL---37.45 THE SST...41 THE TRIPLE TOP B/O
MO---EARNINGS ON THE 16TH..AND HEAVILY NEWS DRIVEN EACH DAY...SEEMS OVERSOLD HERE..HEADING BACK UP INTO THE 20 OVERHEAD THO...31.00 THE BTL---29.65 THE SST...
KSS---I MADE 2.55 POINTS PROFIT ON THIS STOCK USING TRAILING STOPS LAST WEEK AS IT EXPLODED UP OFF MY BUY IN NUMBER AT 56.06...THIS IS THE WAY TO TRADE FOLKS..GET THE MOST OUT OF YOUR WINNERS...58.25 THE BTL---57.10 THE SST...
AMGN---GREAT CHART WITH A NICE 3BXRVDOWN HERE...EPS AH ON THE 22ND CAN IT RUN UP HERE?...NICE 3 STICK PATTERN DCC...58.25 THE BTL---57.20 THE SST...
===============================================================================================
OK WE HAVE A VOLATILE WEEK AHEAD AS ALL OP EX WEEKS TEND TO BE ANYWAY...STAY ALERT YOU CAN USUALLY SELL STOCKS HIGHER, AND BUY THEM LOWER..PLACE BIDS IN BOTH WAYS AT EXTREMES...YOU MAY GET HIT INTRADAY...
LET'S HAVE A SOLID TRADING WEEK..
BEST OF LUCK TO US ALL
REGARDS
JERRY
ALERT-----------------NEW PASSWORD-------------------------------opexweek-----------------------------one word..lower case...
One more thing..Weds of opex weeks are usually down..what with MSFT & INTC reportinbg after hours on Tues, this could spell trouble for Weds..not saying it WILL just a headsup to what might happen...if it does not happen then it will be ultra bullish to me...
OH YES ONE MORE THING...AS OF 4.30 MONDAY I WILL BE SENDING OUT THE INFO ON HOTCOMM WE ARE ALL GOING TO TRY IT ON TUES...MAYBE WE CAN GET INTO THE ROOM LATER IN THE AFTER NOON TO CHECK IT OUT...ON MONDAY AFTER THE CLOSE..I SPOKE TO KEVIN TODAY...WE'LL GET A 2 WEEK FREE TRIAL OR MORE..AND HE'LL COME IN THE ROOM TO HELP US WITH ALL THE BELLS AND WHISTLES...AND THERE ARE A TON OF THEM<G> SO MANY OF US ARE HAVING A TON OF PROBLEMS WITH PALTALK..THIS COULD BE A SOLUTION...
jerry olson
www.buyitbuyitsellitsellit.com
jerry.olson@verizon.net |
