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Strategies & Market Trends : Market Gems:Stocks w/Strong Earnings and High Tech. Rank

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To: LastShadow who wrote (10444)	6/21/1998 9:15:00 AM
From: John Mansfield	of 120523

LastShadow, Nobody really knows whether this will be a 'non-event' or a disaster. I am thinking it will be something in between. Some comments on your argumentation: <<system I built, influenced, dealt with for the last 10 years was reviewed to assure that it utilized a four digit date code. >> That is great! But we can not conclude from your excellent quality of software engineering and programming that the average programmer / system designer etc is working in the same high quality way.... ; and that therefore Y2k will not be a big issue. <<Oil tankers stop dead in the water? No. Will hospitals cease to function. Nope. Will the planes fall out of the sky or be unable to land. Afraid not. Anyone familiar with air traffic control knows that the backup systems are both triple redundant and supported with manual overrides. >> A number of authorities (not politicians!) in these fields are a bit more concerned. I suggest looking at ship2000.com (shipping) rx2000.com (hospitals) gao.gov (a.o. air traffic control) <<I would like you to think about how the things would work, or what the back up or contingency plans are when things like the power goes out. >> I posted a lot about this. Look at the Y2k threads, or one of the many 'non hyping' Y2k web sites. <<if someone in Washington DC is talking about it, my guess is that whichever Big Six Accounting firm who needs more business that is bankrolling his next election is probably behind it>> other 'non politicians' are talking and writing about Y2k; politicians only recently started doing so. You are right; if only those politicians were talking about it; I would not pay much attention ;-) << So here is the kindest way I can put it - If Joe Copia, or Jenna or Walter High or John Kim says we have a problem, I'll start finding out where and why and how and what to do. >> I highly respect these people, especially Jenna, and their opinions. I think she is one of the top stock pickers / traders on SI. But on this issue they just might be wrong. I will even use this thread as an indicator for awareness on Y2k in the investment community; when this issue will be taken seriously somewhere in 1998; it is another indication of the awareness of Y2k impact on the stock market ;-) <<one more thing. It isn't a 'bug'. A bug is a problem with the program. The 2 digit date field was used because no programmer in their right mind figured their stuff would be around for more than three years at most.>> that's true. But this is only semantics; it is not an argument for/against Y2k becoming a disaster. <<of the programs that need updating are over 10 years old. >> 'Most': from all I have read; and talked about Y2k with experts in the field; I can only say that an astounding amount of RECENT code has to be remediated. E.g. look at the programming samples dealing with 'date' in the VB 4.0 online manuals of MSFT; the samples are not compliant. This goes with tons of 'modern' client/server; 4 GL programming and so forth..., Regards, John

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