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Technology Stocks : Wind River going up, up, up!

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To: David R. Lehenky who wrote (1044)5/8/1997 9:17:00 PM
From: Allen Benn   of 10309
 
It is my perception that negotiated royalties in the industry reflect cost of manufacture, around 2%. Geoworks, for example, indicated that their average smart-phone royalty was $12.

The under-the-hood automobile sector offers exciting possibilities for RTOS vendors. Multiply the number of advanced processors needed soon by the number of automobiles, to see why anyone can get excited about this sector. However, the reality is that automobile manufacturers are Neanderthal in their much of their thinking, and they abhor run-time license fees. In time, I believe WIND will own the automobile industry, just like it owns the military, but it is premature to expect much immediately in the form of run-time license fees.

We know WIND has contributed to GM's diesel injector program. But that program was a fully funded rewrite of VxWorks to provide specific functionality, which means that most of the benefit to the company was probably up front rather than in run-time license fees. What this means for electronic transmissions, we don't know. What this means for gas engines, we don't know.

What we do know is that the need for RTOS development exists in the automobile industry, and ultimately WIND must be chosen to satisfy that need - at an attractive benefit to the company and shareholders. One possibility is that automobile manufactures choose to work directly with WIND; another is that solutions are implemented in silicon vis a vis I2O. One way or another WIND will end up with significant revenues from the automobile sector - but not now.

Allen
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