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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory
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To: Peter V who wrote (104823)9/4/2009 3:30:44 PM
From: Hawkmoon  Read Replies (2) of 110194
 
As my pro-Bush boss noted a couple years back though, like Iraq, Afghanistan is an effective "bug killer," as lots of anti-US fighters come to the area where we can zap them. Of course, they zap a few of us along the way. You can never really win a guerilla war.

That's a good explanation. However, it doesn't go far enough.

One of the major reasons we need to be engaged in Afghanistan is that it forces Al Q'aida to defend their home turf.

Remember the psychology of these religious fanatics. They truly believe that Allah is on their side and using his supernatural powers through them to achieve the restoration of the Caliphate and eventual global domination of Islam. That's a powerful historical symbol that appeals to many Muslims, restoration of a glorious past full of conquest.

But when they can't even hold their own turf, let alone find themselves launching terrorist attacks upon fellow muslims, it completely undermines the moral authority of their cause. It's one of the greatest offenses in Islam to murder a fellow muslim. AQSL (Al Q'aida Senior Leadership) discovered how readily Zarqawi's attacks upon dissident Sunnis alienated the tribal chieftains.

This is why we see far less support for Al Q'aida, as well as diminshing support for other militant Qutbist influenced groups in recent years. When a Mujihadin starts killing muslims in the name of Allah, the rest of the muslim word finally figures out that they are just thugs.

What is truly worrisome about Afghanistan is the continuation of the Pashtun, Tajik, Usbek, rivalry. The majority of the Taliban prior to 2001 came from Pashtun tribes in both Afghanistan and Pakistan. It's the undercurrent that feeds a lot of the fighting because it's essentially a power struggle. And of course, how do we wean that population off the cultivation of poppies. It's a long tradition that will be hard to curtail.

Hawk
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