Poll shows French cooling on EU treaty
By John Thornhill and Fred Kapner in Paris and George Parker in Brussels
Published: March 18 2005 12:00 | Last updated: March 18 2005 18:46
news.ft.com
France's political elite was stunned on Friday by an opinion poll that showed for the first time a majority of voters opposed the European Union constitutional treaty.
Jacques Delors, former president of the European Commission, warned of a “political cataclysm” if France voted No to the constitution in a national referendum on May 29.
However, Mr Delors predicted that the Yes campaign, which has only just been launched, would ultimately prevail. “I believe in the good sense of the people. They will not confuse this vote with questions of internal politics,” Mr Delors said in a newspaper interview.
The poll of 802 people, conducted earlier this week, showed that 51 per cent of respondents would vote No if the referendum were held on Sunday. Support for the Yes campaign slumped 14 points from the previous month to 49 per cent, following a tumultuous spell in French politics.
Over the past few weeks, the unemployment rate has climbed above 10 per cent, the trade unions have staged mass protests against the government's reforms, and the finance minister has been forced to quit over a housing scandal.
President Jacques Chirac has also engaged in a public dispute with José Manuel Barroso, the Commission president, over a draft European services directive which the French president has labelled “unacceptable” in its present form.
The directive, which seeks to free the European services market, has been seized upon by the No camp in France as evidence that Europe is heading in an excessively “liberal” direction.
Jean-Daniel Lévy, director of studies at the CSA institute, which conducted the opinion poll, said it was far too early to predict the outcome of the French referendum. “The debate has not yet focused on the fundamentals of the constitution but revolves around whether France is functioning well,” he told the FT. “But there is a very strong evolution of opinion against the Yes.” Mr Lévy noted a particularly sharp drop in support for the treaty among socialist voters because of the recent social unrest. Last December, a clear majority of Socialist Party members, who voted in an internal party ballot, opted to support the constitution.
Jean-Pierre Raffarin, prime minister, put a brave face on the poll, published on Friday in Le Parisien newspaper, suggesting it would help to galvanise the campaign. “This uncertainty about the result is going to create a debate,” he said yesterday. “If the result is known in advance, then people do not feel personally responsible. But with a 50:50 situation, the French will be personally responsible for their choice.” The European Commission said on Friday it was “disturbed” by the growing No campaign in France, but denied that its controversial services directive was largely to blame.
The EU constitution, which contains new rules for the expanded union and strengthens Europe's foreign and security policy, can come into force only when all 25 members adopt it.
Mr Barroso fears French politicians are fuelling euroscepticism with their attacks on Brussels over the directive. But Jacques Barrot, the French EU transport commissioner, is among those concerned at Mr Barroso's “peculiarly ill-timed” speech on Monday, in which he defended the directive. |
