darfott,
Re: the TRC was simply declaring that the Lower 48 was no longer able to set prices at the margin.
Could you say that again, in English? :)
What occurred in 1970 was that the TRC no longer felt compelled to shut in production in order to stabilize oil prices. After the TRC went to 100% production, the industry for the first time in five decades could produce flat out and still not satisfy the demands of the American market.
***
Re: if you think, by extension, that Peak Oil today is just a Vast Right Wing Conspiracy,
LOL! I think you've got it completely backwards. If anything, those who are loudest in announcing the end of cheap oil are folks more likely to be associated with the progressive end of the political spectrum. Mike Rupert, Robert Heinberg, Ken Deffeyes, Colin Campbell and the ASPO members would be highly amused by your characterization of them as Right Wingers. <grin>
The Right Wing Conspiracy seems to be more confined to the likes of the industry itself and the captured bureaucrats at the DOE who are spouting remarkably rosy scenarios about the future of the oil industry and its ability to satisfy demand.
FYI, I've reviewed almost all of the material available in the thread header, and quite a bit more beyond that. I don't in any way see myself as being naive about the subject matter.
The simple point that I'm trying to get across now and then is that production does not fall off a cliff after the peak has been reached. Rather, there is a gentle falloff of production with the production system no longer able to keep up with demand. This creates all sorts of financial chaos and volatility, but it does not even come close to meaning that the world is running out of crude oil. Remember, at the peak, approximate half of the oil that will ever be recovered is still in the ground waiting to be developed. |
