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Technology Stocks : Vitesse Semiconductor

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To: w0z who wrote (104)	3/17/1996 12:53:00 PM
From: Cameron	of 4710

If 2.4 mil shares are offered at $18 and the averaged daily volume is only 320k or so...and assuming only about 5% or so of Avg daily volume (I'm guessing here) can be placed on the market without adversely affecting the market price...I'd say we have an effective ceiling placed on VTSS of 18 something for about 150 trading days! Of course, the recent trading activity has been double that, or about 650k/day. Even so, this ceiling could last 75 trading days! Am I completely wrong to think like this? I've also noticed a very tight downsloping, right triangle forming in the last week or so...seeming to indicate a price drop to 14 something is coming. OK, so what I expect is trading between 14 something and 18 something...consolidating until the 2.4 mil 2nd offering shares are absorbed...how long? Depends on avg trading volume...but I'd say for some time. On the other hand, once the shares are absorbed, I'd think many new investors would sell at a 30% gain, or right at 23 1/2. This also makes sense, as there will be strong selling pressure there. At any rate, this week will show a change in trend for VTSS...let's see. Cameron

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