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Biotech / Medical : Ecoscience (ECSC)

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To: SirAlexx who wrote (104)2/15/1997 4:15:00 PM
From: Bill Rau   of 145
 
Hi SirAlexx,

Good to hear from someone--thought everybody had died and gone to heaven. I would urge some caution with this stock, so by "long" I am assuming that you plan to hold shares for a year to 18 months. Here's one reason why I suggest caution. Ag Biotechs can have revenues that track the farming season, so if you look at ESCS's quaterly earlings last year, you have the following:

1Q96 $4,194
2Q96 $4,295
3Q96 $3,139
4Q96 $2,730

We have now just received the 2Q97 report. Question: what will happen in 3Q97 and 4Q97? Will revenue decline, as it did last year, or will Bio-Blast take off and generate enough revenue and profit to fill the lull before the fall harvest season? Will Agro sales be strong in these quaters? I'm not even sure yet into what quater Bio-Blast revenues will map, assuming that it does start to sell. This company may do well over the long run - but perhaps not. There are a lot of unknowns. Even so, I'm a long term investor, so I intend to hold 400 shares for at least another year or two.

Good luck, but read their 10-K carefully before you make a decision.

Bill Rau
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