RE: "However, I do not agree that the semi is seeing a peak."
Threadsters,
It may not have been clear in my previous post, so I'll repeat it:
I do not agree with his final conclusion. I do not think the semi is reaching a peak. Too many indicators show the contrary to his findings IMHO. I think the demand is strong still and will continue to be strong.
I think the biggest risk (for any company) is supplying the demand: can it be met and can enough be produced?
I wonder how AMD is going to hold its market share if they hit a wall in their capacity, while Intel has the ability to expand their capacity to meet large demand.
I concur TCs have dropped a lot in pricing, but I believe this price drop is because other suppliers have come on-line and rushed in for the 10X return. But, if I were an AMD investor, I'd checkout the underlying cause to the price drop, to make sure that it's not the cellular market (although that would be surprising), i.e. TC-->(cellular)--->memory===> impacts AMD.
But if it it's: TC--->(new suppliers), then no impact to AMD.
So, I think the report is a false alarm. But, I continue to give him credit for presenting the information on TCs as food for thought and consideration, unlike other analysts, even though I disagree with his opinion.
Regards,
Amy J |
