Semi Equipment Analysis Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis

SOXX 296.74

+1.8%

Nov 28 4:00 PM EST

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To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (10563)	7/11/2003 9:08:30 PM
From: Cary Salsberg	of 95487

RE: "Stocks are only cheap if one can construct a more robust recovery than the 1998-2000 cycle - we find it hard to make that argument." I have postulated since early 2001 that the semi-equip recovery will be slow, with a peak in 2007-8, and with revenues that exceed 2000. I think the problem is the word "cycle." It should be obvious to anyone who looks at historical data that we have had a down cycle and early recovery period that is very different from anything that occurred in the past. I still see analysts proposing an upcycle similar in duration to past upcycles. I see no consideration given to our unique circumstances and I don't see credible recovery drivers discussed.

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