Re: Apple's Java Strategy
Victor Danti: Qn for the Board: Sun and IBM are developing a new JAVA based OS system. What impact, if any, is this going to have on AAPL?
The impact is potentially enormous. Java represents the first real opportunity to level the playing field between Wintel and Apple (as well as every other platform) in terms of application support. Currently, application support is the main factor influencing people's box buying decision. They need a particular app, they see which box runs it, and they buy that box. The OS and hardware are secondary. This is why Wintel has been dominant despite its historical inferiority.
Once there is a large set of applications written for Java, people's buying pattern will change. Instead of making one major decision before they choose which box to buy, they'll make three: app, hardware, and OS. So, let's say they want a 3D rendering app, an easy to use OS, and high-performance hardware. They could choose a Java 3D app, MacOS (Rhapsody), and a PowerPC G4 (G5?) box.
Phillip Lee: It hardly has any impact on Apple. Java is a language (I prefer Microsoft's treating it as a language) used on the Internet application.
While I agree with Philip's technical explanation of Java, I disagree with your view that Java is merely a language. Yes, it is a language, and a very good one. The Java developer at my company finds it massively superior as a language to C or C++. But its cross-platform capabilities make it a platform in its own right, which is why it has the potential that I mentioned above.
Java will come into its own when there are OSs and chips that are designed specifically for it. Rhapsody will be the first of these, as will, I believe, the next major version of MacOS (Allegro).
Phillip Lee: Nothing is going to impact the balance between two groups, IBM/Sun and Microsoft/Apple/HP.
I find your grouping of companies here very strange. Do you really think that Apple is more in line with Microsoft/HP than IBM/Sun?
This is my take on Apple's Java strategy:
1) Microsoft is scared shitless (pardon the expression) about Java. So Apple is making concessions to MS on the Java front in order to get other concessions from MS. Microsoft's strategy for killing Java is to create incompatible Java Virtual Machines, and put them on the most popular platforms, i.e. Wintel PCs and Macs. Hence the declarations that Wintel + Mac = 100% of the desktop market, and recent announcement about cooperation on Mac JVMs. In return, I suspect that MS may have conceded to integrate Yellow Boxes on Win95 and WinNT. The Yellow Box is Apple's own response to Java.
2) Meanwhile, Apple is hedging its Yellow Box bet by delivering the first OS (Rhapsody) that allows developers to write Java apps that essentially run natively. This means that Java performance on Rhapsody boxes will be as good or better than anything else out there. If Java wins the platform wars, Rhapsody will be a top contender in the 3-decision process I described above. If Java loses as a platform, it will still be the best language, and developers can use it for Rhapsody development.
Apple's Java strategy is brilliant, in my opinion, and indicative of Jobs's vision of where the industry is going, and his knowledge of how to take advantage of different possible futures.
rhet0ric |
