There are 96 million households in the US. How many of these will wind up owning computers in the intermediate term and then proceeding to go onto the web? Mind you, probably 20% of more of the US population is functionally illiterate or does not speak English. Will we get 50 million web users by the year 2001? I would certainly doubt it. Anyway, how many of these people can AOL expect to have and hold? They claim to have 12 million+ AOL users and 2 million+ Compuserve users or shall we say something around 15 million. Now, I don't believe that figure, but the stock price acts as if it is legit. So, what is AOL's potential market share, especially with some of the other big players coming on stronger like MCI? 40% of the market. So, can AOL thru its two entitites aspire to 20 million members. I personally think both the 50 million and 40% (as a long run market share figure) are inflated.
Hey Tim,
Where did you get the 96 million households number from? I was reading through one of the industry rags (IW) the other day, and the big 4 (Relevant Knowledge, Media Metrix, Net Ratings, and Neilsen) say right now there are around 42-57 million net users, and growing. That would put net users around 50% already.
AOL owns market share by a longshot compared to the other big players. As far as the member milestones, x millions of members by x/xx/xx date, AOL usually comes in on target. I wouldn't be surprised to see AOL at 20 million by Y2K. That isn't including ICQ "members" or any future acquisitions.
BTW, Internet World has the article up on their site...
internetworld.com
S. |
