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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis

SOXX 309.40

+1.0%

Dec 5 4:00 PM EST

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To: The Ox who wrote (10660)	7/20/2003 1:39:53 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	Read Replies (1) of 95530

Michael, Thanks for the update and congratulations on having some profits to enjoy this summer. The market has had a great run since March - can it continue thru the summer months? Only time will tell, but maybe we will get some resolution of that question over the remaining 5 to 10 days of the earnings reporting season. The valuations of the semi-equips are very high right now - higher than I have seen them for a long time. The market is betting on a strong 2nd half which may, or may not, be coming. The latest report by SEMI on Friday evening was very benign - no pickup in order input, as a matter of fact, a small reduction in order input was recorded for June. Gottfried has updated the chart of Bookings and Billings thru June and it is more of the same as the previous months. home.comcast.net This is now the 10th month in a row for the BtB to be less than 1. Also, Gottfried's chart shows how a quick recovery in Bookings and Billings occurred in 1996 and 1998 - not this time - we have been cruising along at a very reduced rate for the last 27 months now with no sign of an "uptick". Obviously an uptick will come at some point, but when? - the 2nd half of this year, that is the question before us now. A lot of gurus and research firms are "flooding" the media lately with how good things are starting to look and how great it is going to be this second half and on into next year. I think I heard that story before - like maybe last year around this time?:) Quite a difference today compared to last year around this time as shown in the following. Message 19125724 Anyway, enough of this - have a great summer, at least what is left of it. Please let us know when you think it is safe to enter the "trading waters" again.:) Don

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