Timing the Trade the Wyckoff Way Message Board

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Timing the Trade the Wyckoff Way

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next

To: coferspeculator who started this subject	5/31/2004 10:20:28 AM
From: coferspeculator	of 14340

On Friday the market closed near Thursdays close with reduced spread in a nearly over bought condition. The reduced spread and low volume indicated that demand was withdrawn from the market and supply was a no show. On Tuesday demand finally sprung the trading range lows. It followed up on Thursday after supply failed to meet demand on Tuesday and offered no pressure to the downside on Wednesday. Friday's action brought the market back to slightly above the half way point between the LPSY and recent new lows for the year. During the week, the short term supply line was broken decisively and the market finished back in the previous trading range defined from the highs of the year and the lows in March. While the spread and volume on Tuesday and Thursday indicates that demand was able to take control last week, there are good reasons to be skeptical of the recent advance. The recent up move off the lows has brought the market back up to the half way point on lower volume when compared with the last down leg and on relatively lower volume then the past two rallying efforts. At this time the character of the action offers the possibility that the market may be working on a LPSY that would confirm the SOW that began in April. It is still too early to conclude that the spring off the lows negated the SOW. Tuesday's actions and Thursday's action suggest that this is possible but the lack of greater volume as the market has approached the half way point still offers some doubt. Confirmation that the SOW has been negated would occur if demand can continue to show wide spreads on greater volume. Without this, it is unlikely that the market will be able to penetrate the current supply line off the highs of the year and the LPSY in early April. This is the next important objective for the bulls. A failure at that level or at the current half way point will provide the bears the opportunity to see if they can take control of the market as they did in the last down leg. If this occurs, short term aggressive long positions taken this past week should be watched carefully. Short term aggressive traders should have a list of short candidates on hand. Should this half way point fail to the upside and begin a slide back down on increased spread and volume, then it is possible that this will be an LPSY that will not only confirm the previous SOW but may become an important second point for a new intermediate term supply line. Additionally, if the move should stop in the current vicinity, the nearly overbought condition would be occurring at a lower level then the last time indicating additional evidence of weakness in the market. These two situations should be watched closely. The current speculative pressure on the market, however, is to the upside so any move to the downside isn't likely to take the market below the current trading range. As a result any short positions considered should be taken as short term speculations.

Report TOU Violation

Share This Post

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next