Very interesting:
Roller Coaster
Winds of Change reports that the erosion of Syrian hegemony continues in Lebanon. The $64,000 question was whether Syria had the capacity and will to ignite a civil war in Lebanon to save their position; or failing that, to spike their guns by taking it down in chaos with them.
Another 2,000 Syrian troops have left Lebanon. Lebanese defence officials say that the Lebanese army is not able to fill the void. The Lebanese military intelligence chief is taking a leave of absence. Debka reports that the pro-Syrian security apparatus has collapsed. Karami is going to resign again. Jumblatt doesn't want Hezbollah to disarm, and wants to stay friends with Syria and Hezbollah.
If that turns out to be true, the analysis of Jonathan Edelstein, a.k.a. The Head Heeb will have proved right on the money. Lebanon-watching blog Across the Bay (blogrolled) pointed out that Edelstein made four predictions on March 23, 2005. These were:
The status quo will not endure for long. Even if the government succeeds in turning back the opposition's challenge or the opposition becomes a victim of its own disunity, the artificial stasis of the Pax Syriana is on its way out.
A doomsday scenario involving a renewed civil war or the breakup of the country is unlikely.
It appears that Lebanon is in the process of developing a national consciousness
He believes that the Lebanese political system will continue to be consociational for as long as the development of a national consciousness is incomplete, and probably for some time after.
(The term 'consociational' is defined by Answers.com as "a state which has major internal divisions along ethnic, religious, or linguistic lines, yet nonetheless manages to remain remarkably stable, due to consultation between the elites of each of its major social groups.")
Across the Bay is very impressed with the Head Heeb's analysis especially when compared to some big name academics who predicted the exact opposite would happen in Lebanon. "The reason why is that Edelstein starts with the right premise, whereas the others ... are working with Third Worldist and Arabist models and are stuck in the '70s." Syria is being beaten and we can hardly believe our eyes.
Herodotus was the first known author to approach history as inquiry; to transform it from a mere recitation of events into an attempt to identify cause and effect. And that is no easy task. The fading of the Iraqi insurgency, the Syrian retreat from Lebanon are now growing clearer before us, but what do they mean? By way of context, Publius Pundit, a blog dedicated to following democracy moments all around the world, is filled with the rumor of mass rallies and political movements shaking the former Soviet Union, the Middle East and even North Korea. These developments are widely presumed to favor the United States; and in the narrow sense that collapsing empires play into the hands of the nation which holds the balance of power, this must be true. But first and foremost, they are evidence of dysfunction: proof that the Soviet model, Middle Eastern authoritarianism and to a certain extent transnational liberalism have lost their grip. In that respect the sudden and unexpected weakening of the United Nations is less the result of Kofi Annan's individual shenanigans than a symptom that the bottom has fallen out of the whole postwar system.
If this analysis is correct, the world crisis should accelerate rather than diminish in the coming years and months, not in the least because the United States seems to have no plan to fill the power vacuum with anything. The promotion of democracy is at heart an act of faith in the self-organizing ability of nations; it means getting rid of one dictator without necessarily having another waiting in the wings. It is so counterintuitive to disciples of realpolitik as to resemble madness. Or put more cynically, the promotion of democracy is a gamble only a country with a missile defense system, control of space, homeland defense and a global reach can afford to take. If you have your six-gun drawn, you can overturn the poker table. In retrospect, the real mistake the September 11 planners made to underestimate how radical the US could be. This does not necessarily mean America will win the hand; but it does indicate how high it is willing to raise the stakes.
wretchard.com |
