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Politics : Politics for Pros- moderated

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To: JohnM who wrote (107581)	4/4/2005 2:42:13 PM
From: Nadine Carroll	Read Replies (1) of 793931

Cole's is much more detailed, perhaps more than anyone would want to read; but the effect is to give a much more tentative feel to any directionality for change. Cole's also sounds much more in touch with matters on the ground. Cole is good at dropping lots of details to make himself sound smart. But the quality of his judgements leaves something to be desired. Did you read how much he disparaged the Jan 30th elections, saying they were "much less democratic" than the 1997 Iranian elections - and in short, were almost a failure, certainly were no big success as people were claiming? Whereas it is now quite clear that the elections were a major turning point. The insurgency had counted on being able to prevent them. Not only did it fail, but 8 million Iraqis turned out and triumphantly voted in spite of the death threats. This changed the psychology in Iraq, and the insurgency is now cracking, as major Sunni factions split off and try to cut themselves a deal in the new government. No, I don't think we need to be too bowled over by Prof Cole's command of Iraqi details.

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